NFL Off a 14+ point win: Houston Texans: ATS Record Since 1999
The letdown spot. 56 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 27-27-2 (50.0%)
Straight up: 24-32 (42.9%)
Over/under: 24-30-2 (44.4% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.31 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2002-2014: 12-14 (46.2%); 2015-2026: 15-13 (53.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2024 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2021 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 1-3-1 | 25.0% |
| 2012 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2011 | 4-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2007 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2002 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point win for the Houston Texans?
27-27-2 against the spread (50.0%) in 56 team-games since 1999, 24-32 straight up and 24-30-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2002-2014: 12-14 (46.2%); 2015-2026: 15-13 (53.6%).