NBA Off an upset loss: Denver Nuggets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Lost last game as a favorite. 286 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 140-140-6 (50.0%)
Straight up: 177-109 (61.9%)
Over/under: 161-122-3 (56.9% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.51 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 61-68 (47.3%); 2018-2027: 79-72 (52.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026 | 9-7 | 56.3% |
| 2025 | 9-12 | 42.9% |
| 2024 | 12-8 | 60.0% |
| 2023 | 10-8 | 55.6% |
| 2022 | 9-9 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 10-7 | 58.8% |
| 2020 | 8-4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2019 | 5-10 | 33.3% |
| 2018 | 6-7-2 | 46.2% |
| 2017 | 8-6 | 57.1% |
| 2016 | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| 2015 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 3-7 | 30.0% |
| 2013 | 6-8 | 42.9% |
| 2012 | 9-6 | 60.0% |
| 2011 | 7-4-1 | 63.6% |
| 2010 | 9-11 | 45.0% |
| 2009 | 5-7 | 41.7% |
| 2008 | 4-10-1 | 28.6% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA off an upset loss for the Denver Nuggets?
140-140-6 against the spread (50.0%) in 286 team-games since 2007-08, 177-109 straight up and 161-122-3 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 61-68 (47.3%); 2018-2027: 79-72 (52.3%).