NBA Off an upset loss: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Lost last game as a favorite. 325 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 172-146-7 (54.1%)
Straight up: 197-128 (60.6%)
Over/under: 163-158-4 (50.8% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.25 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 92-78 (54.1%); 2018-2027: 80-68 (54.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2026 | 11-4 | 73.3% |
| 2025 | 6-10 | 37.5% |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 41.7% |
| 2023 | 10-12 | 45.5% |
| 2022 | 13-8-1 | 61.9% |
| 2021 | 7-8-2 | 46.7% |
| 2020 | 8-4 | 66.7% |
| 2019 | 12-9 | 57.1% |
| 2018 | 7-4-1 | 63.6% |
| 2017 | 8-4 | 66.7% |
| 2016 | 12-6 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 6-9-1 | 40.0% |
| 2014 | 14-11-1 | 56.0% |
| 2013 | 14-7 | 66.7% |
| 2012 | 11-9-1 | 55.0% |
| 2011 | 8-14 | 36.4% |
| 2010 | 8-6 | 57.1% |
| 2009 | 4-6 | 40.0% |
| 2008 | 7-6 | 53.8% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA off an upset loss for the Miami Heat?
172-146-7 against the spread (54.1%) in 325 team-games since 2007-08, 197-128 straight up and 163-158-4 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 92-78 (54.1%); 2018-2027: 80-68 (54.1%).