NBA Off a 15+ point loss: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The bounce-back spot. 201 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 105-91-5 (53.6%)
Straight up: 101-100 (50.2%)
Over/under: 105-94-2 (52.8% overs)
Average cover margin: 1.42 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 58-41 (58.6%); 2018-2027: 47-50 (48.5%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 6-6 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 6-6 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| 2022 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2021 | 3-8-1 | 27.3% |
| 2020 | 6-3-1 | 66.7% |
| 2019 | 6-6 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 8-4-1 | 66.7% |
| 2017 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2016 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| 2015 | 12-6 | 66.7% |
| 2014 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2012 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2010 | 6-6 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 9-1 | 90.0% |
| 2008 | 10-11-1 | 47.6% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA off a 15+ point loss for the Miami Heat?
105-91-5 against the spread (53.6%) in 201 team-games since 2007-08, 101-100 straight up and 105-94-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 58-41 (58.6%); 2018-2027: 47-50 (48.5%).