NBA Third game in four nights: Denver Nuggets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
A compressed stretch. 414 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 203-198-13 (50.6%)
Straight up: 219-195 (52.9%)
Over/under: 223-189-2 (54.1% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.45 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.4%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 126-116 (52.1%); 2018-2026: 77-82 (48.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8-13 | 38.1% |
| 2025 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2024 | 7-8-1 | 46.7% |
| 2023 | 12-5 | 70.6% |
| 2022 | 4-11 | 26.7% |
| 2021 | 13-8 | 61.9% |
| 2020 | 3-10 | 23.1% |
| 2019 | 12-9 | 57.1% |
| 2018 | 7-6-2 | 53.8% |
| 2017 | 17-8-1 | 68.0% |
| 2016 | 8-10-3 | 44.4% |
| 2015 | 14-13-2 | 51.9% |
| 2014 | 8-12-1 | 40.0% |
| 2013 | 13-8 | 61.9% |
| 2012 | 13-14 | 48.1% |
| 2011 | 17-10-1 | 63.0% |
| 2010 | 6-18-2 | 25.0% |
| 2009 | 16-12 | 57.1% |
| 2008 | 14-11 | 56.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA third game in four nights for the Denver Nuggets?
203-198-13 against the spread (50.6%) in 414 team-games since 2007-08, 219-195 straight up and 223-189-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.4%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 126-116 (52.1%); 2018-2026: 77-82 (48.4%).