NFL Home favorites: New England Patriots: ATS Record Since 1999
Teams laying points at home. 209 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 114-88-7 (56.4%)
Straight up: 168-41 (80.4%)
Over/under: 105-98-6 (51.7% overs)
Average cover margin: 2.43 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 8 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2012: 55-54 (50.5%); 2013-2026: 59-34 (63.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: NE vs GB
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2025 | 7-2 | 77.8% |
| 2023 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2021 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2020 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2019 | 3-5-1 | 37.5% |
| 2018 | 7-2 | 77.8% |
| 2017 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| 2016 | 8-2 | 80.0% |
| 2015 | 5-2-2 | 71.4% |
| 2014 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 7-2 | 77.8% |
| 2012 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| 2008 | 3-5 | 37.5% |
| 2007 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2006 | 3-6 | 33.3% |
| 2005 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2004 | 6-1-2 | 85.7% |
| 2003 | 9-1 | 90.0% |
| 2002 | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| 2001 | 3-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2000 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 1999 | 1-5 | 16.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites for the New England Patriots?
114-88-7 against the spread (56.4%) in 209 team-games since 1999, 168-41 straight up and 105-98-6 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 8 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 55-54 (50.5%); 2013-2026: 59-34 (63.4%).