NFL Underdogs of 7+: Atlanta Falcons: ATS Record Since 1999
Getting a touchdown or more. 59 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 28-28-3 (50.0%)
Straight up: 9-50 (15.3%)
Over/under: 23-36 (39.0% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.56 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2011: 15-16 (48.4%); 2013-2025: 13-12 (52.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 1-5-1 | 16.7% |
| 2020 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2007 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2002 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2001 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 1999 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL underdogs of 7+ for the Atlanta Falcons?
28-28-3 against the spread (50.0%) in 59 team-games since 1999, 9-50 straight up and 23-36 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2011: 15-16 (48.4%); 2013-2025: 13-12 (52.0%).