NFL Underdogs of 7+: New England Patriots: ATS Record Since 1999
Getting a touchdown or more. 30 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 21-8-1 (72.4%)
Straight up: 14-16 (46.7%)
Over/under: 20-9-1 (69.0% overs)
Average cover margin: 6.15 points
Is it real?
Fewer than 30 decided games, too few to judge. 1999-2020: 12-4 (75.0%); 2022-2026: 9-4 (69.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2023 | 3-1-1 | 75.0% |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2016 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2001 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2000 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 1999 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL underdogs of 7+ for the New England Patriots?
21-8-1 against the spread (72.4%) in 30 team-games since 1999, 14-16 straight up and 20-9-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Fewer than 30 decided games, too few to judge.
Did it hold up?
1999-2020: 12-4 (75.0%); 2022-2026: 9-4 (69.2%).