NBA Off a 15+ point win: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The letdown spot. 274 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 131-133-10 (49.6%)
Straight up: 165-109 (60.2%)
Over/under: 121-149-4 (44.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.13 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.8%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 77-76 (50.3%); 2018-2026: 54-57 (48.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: MIA at LAL
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12-7-1 | 63.2% |
| 2025 | 10-5 | 66.7% |
| 2024 | 5-2-2 | 71.4% |
| 2023 | 0-6 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 15-10 | 60.0% |
| 2021 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 4-12 | 25.0% |
| 2019 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% |
| 2018 | 0-6-3 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 7-5 | 58.3% |
| 2016 | 12-6 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2014 | 9-11-1 | 45.0% |
| 2013 | 13-15 | 46.4% |
| 2012 | 12-8-1 | 60.0% |
| 2011 | 11-10-1 | 52.4% |
| 2010 | 7-7 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 5-8 | 38.5% |
| 2008 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA off a 15+ point win for the Miami Heat?
131-133-10 against the spread (49.6%) in 274 team-games since 2007-08, 165-109 straight up and 121-149-4 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.8%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 77-76 (50.3%); 2018-2026: 54-57 (48.6%).