NBA Off a 15+ point win: Denver Nuggets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The letdown spot. 277 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 140-134-3 (51.1%)
Straight up: 166-111 (59.9%)
Over/under: 134-138-5 (49.3% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.47 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 77-58 (57.0%); 2018-2026: 63-76 (45.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8-9 | 47.1% |
| 2025 | 10-8 | 55.6% |
| 2024 | 7-10 | 41.2% |
| 2023 | 5-10 | 33.3% |
| 2022 | 7-5 | 58.3% |
| 2021 | 8-10 | 44.4% |
| 2020 | 3-6 | 33.3% |
| 2019 | 9-10 | 47.4% |
| 2018 | 6-8-1 | 42.9% |
| 2017 | 8-5 | 61.5% |
| 2016 | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| 2015 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 13-5 | 72.2% |
| 2012 | 5-9 | 35.7% |
| 2011 | 9-7-1 | 56.3% |
| 2010 | 5-10-1 | 33.3% |
| 2009 | 11-8 | 57.9% |
| 2008 | 12-6 | 66.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA off a 15+ point win for the Denver Nuggets?
140-134-3 against the spread (51.1%) in 277 team-games since 2007-08, 166-111 straight up and 134-138-5 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 77-58 (57.0%); 2018-2026: 63-76 (45.3%).