NBA Home favorites of 10+: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Laying double digits at home. 135 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 53-78-4 (40.5%)
Straight up: 122-13 (90.4%)
Over/under: 81-53-1 (60.4% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.14 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 21 times. 2009-2017: 35-54 (39.3%); 2018-2026: 18-24 (42.9%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6-2 | 75.0% |
| 2025 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2023 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 3-7 | 30.0% |
| 2021 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2017 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2016 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 10-14 | 41.7% |
| 2012 | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 6-12-1 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| 2009 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA home favorites of 10+ for the Miami Heat?
53-78-4 against the spread (40.5%) in 135 team-games since 2007-08, 122-13 straight up and 81-53-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 21 times.
Did it hold up?
2009-2017: 35-54 (39.3%); 2018-2026: 18-24 (42.9%).