NBA Home favorites of 10+: Denver Nuggets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Laying double digits at home. 182 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 85-94-3 (47.5%)
Straight up: 160-22 (87.9%)
Over/under: 100-78-4 (56.2% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.3 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2018: 47-48 (49.5%); 2019-2027: 38-46 (45.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 5-9 | 35.7% |
| 2025 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 7-6-1 | 53.8% |
| 2023 | 6-4-1 | 60.0% |
| 2022 | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| 2021 | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| 2020 | 4-7 | 36.4% |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 61.5% |
| 2018 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2017 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2015 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2014 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2013 | 7-7 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| 2011 | 7-4 | 63.6% |
| 2010 | 4-12 | 25.0% |
| 2009 | 9-6 | 60.0% |
| 2008 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA home favorites of 10+ for the Denver Nuggets?
85-94-3 against the spread (47.5%) in 182 team-games since 2007-08, 160-22 straight up and 100-78-4 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2018: 47-48 (49.5%); 2019-2027: 38-46 (45.2%).