NFL Teams off a bye: New England Patriots: ATS Record Since 1999
The game after a bye week. 50 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 23-25-2 (47.9%)
Straight up: 33-17 (66.0%)
Over/under: 24-25-1 (49.0% overs)
Average cover margin: 1.16 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -0.6%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 9-15 (37.5%); 2013-2025: 14-10 (58.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2016 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2008 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2007 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2006 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2005 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2003 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2002 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL teams off a bye for the New England Patriots?
23-25-2 against the spread (47.9%) in 50 team-games since 1999, 33-17 straight up and 24-25-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -0.6%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 9-15 (37.5%); 2013-2025: 14-10 (58.3%).