NFL Home underdogs: New England Patriots: ATS Record Since 1999
Teams getting points at home. 37 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 18-17-2 (51.4%)
Straight up: 13-24 (35.1%)
Over/under: 22-14-1 (61.1% overs)
Average cover margin: 2.26 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.8%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2014: 10-3 (76.9%); 2020-2025: 8-14 (36.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 1-3-1 | 25.0% |
| 2022 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2014 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2005 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2001 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2000 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 1999 | 1-0-1 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home underdogs for the New England Patriots?
18-17-2 against the spread (51.4%) in 37 team-games since 1999, 13-24 straight up and 22-14-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.8%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2014: 10-3 (76.9%); 2020-2025: 8-14 (36.4%).