NFL Home underdogs: Buffalo Bills: ATS Record Since 1999
Teams getting points at home. 75 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 36-36-3 (50.0%)
Straight up: 27-48 (36.0%)
Over/under: 40-35 (53.3% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.68 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2011: 18-22 (45.0%); 2012-2025: 18-14 (56.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2019 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2018 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2017 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2016 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2015 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2014 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2013 | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| 2012 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2010 | 1-3-1 | 25.0% |
| 2009 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2008 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2006 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2005 | 0-2-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2002 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2001 | 2-5 | 28.6% |
| 1999 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home underdogs for the Buffalo Bills?
36-36-3 against the spread (50.0%) in 75 team-games since 1999, 27-48 straight up and 40-35 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2011: 18-22 (45.0%); 2012-2025: 18-14 (56.3%).