Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev prediction: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev's first-round blitz tests Nikita Krylov's fading chin
The unbeaten sambo specialist has barely been seen in the Octagon, while Krylov's recent losses have ended by strikes.
| Nikita Krylov | +407 (18.9% implied) |
|---|---|
| Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev | -555 (81.1% implied) |
- Yakhyaev hunts an early knockout or back take; Krylov's path is surviving the opening rush and dragging a 25-year-old into deep water.
- Watch Yakhyaev's first entry: Krylov stops 53% of takedown attempts, and Yakhyaev's UFC fights average 1.2 minutes.
- Yakhyaev is -550 (80.8% no-vig), up from -510 when our feed first saw it; Krylov has 4 UFC losses by KO/TKO.
Krylov's chin is the question
Nikita Krylov is a veteran with real wins on his résumé, 12-10 in the UFC and 31-12 as a pro, and the UFC's event page lists him at No. 15 at light heavyweight. The problem is how his recent losses have ended.
Dominick Reyes knocked him out at 2:24 of the first round in April 2025. Bogdan Guskov finished him with ground punches that July. Robert Whittaker stopped him in the third round this July, and Krylov went to a hospital for a precautionary jaw scan afterward. In all, he has 4 UFC losses by KO/TKO.
He has always fought with aggression ahead of caution. Opponents' significant strikes miss him only 48% of the time, which leaves little margin against a young finisher.
He can still hurt people. In January he caught Modestas Bukauskas with an overhand right at 4:57 of the third round, a reminder that Krylov keeps throwing until the horn.
A sambo player in a hurry
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev is 10-0 as a pro and 3-0 in the UFC, and eight of his 10 wins came by first-round stoppage. He is a Combat Sambo master of sports with a NAGA European grappling title, and his UFC work shows both halves: two rear-naked chokes and an 8-second knockout of Julius Walker in June.
He has logged just 3.5 minutes in the Octagon, so his rates are built on almost nothing. Still, his takedown rate of 12.68 per 15 minutes points to where he wants this fight. Krylov stops 53% of takedown attempts, a soft wall for a sambo grappler.
The ground is not a one-way street. Krylov submitted Ryan Spann with a triangle from bottom guard, and he scrambles constantly. He also has 4 UFC submission losses, so a messy exchange on the mat cuts both ways.
The step up and the price
This is Yakhyaev's first real test. His UFC opponents were a combined 3-6 going in, and one was making his debut. Yakhyaev has said he wants a top-15 spot out of this fight. He says he has a Plan B and a Plan C, and he insists his conditioning will hold if this goes long.
Age runs his way: he is 25, Krylov is 34. Both men weighed in at 206 pounds, with no fine reported for this bout.
The market leans hard toward the prospect. Yakhyaev sits at -550, an 80.8% no-vig chance, and the money has moved his way since our feed first saw him at -510. Krylov at +397.5 is a bet that the unknowns in Yakhyaev's game matter more than the knockouts in Krylov's recent past.
The fighters
- Nikita Krylov (Nikita Krylov): Krylov is 12-10 in the UFC with 4 losses by KO/TKO, including his last defeat to Robert Whittaker.
- Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev): Yakhyaev is 10-0 as a pro and has needed only 3.5 minutes of total UFC cage time for his three wins.
Numbers that matter
| Yakhyaev UFC minutes | 3.5 | Three wins in barely three and a half minutes means his stats say little about how he handles adversity. |
|---|---|---|
| Krylov takedown defense | 53% | Krylov stops just over half of takedown attempts, an opening for Yakhyaev's sambo entries. |
| Krylov UFC KO/TKO losses | 4 | His recent defeats to Reyes, Guskov and Whittaker all ended by strikes. |
| Yakhyaev opponents' record | 3-6 | His UFC opposition had a combined losing record going in, so Krylov is a clear step up. |
| Yakhyaev moneyline | -550 | The price has firmed from -510 since our feed first saw it, with money moving toward the prospect. |
Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev: quick answers
Who is favored in Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev?
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev is the favorite at -555; Nikita Krylov is +407.
When is Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev?
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, on the prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev?
Light Heavyweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev?
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.