Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev prediction: Grant Dawson's choke game tests Nurullo Aliev's unbeaten wrestling blanket
Two lightweights who win by holding people down, and only one of them has shown he can finish from there.
| Grant Dawson | -109 (50% implied) |
|---|---|
| Nurullo Aliev | -109 (50% implied) |
- Expect a grinding three rounds of takedown exchanges and cage work. Aliev has gone the distance every time, while Dawson hunts chokes late.
- Watch the first takedown attempt. Whoever wins the opening scramble decides who spends the fight on top.
- Dawson is -116 (51.3%) and ticked over from -115. Aliev's 80% takedown defense is the number that argues against the favorite.
Two wrestlers, one top position
Nurullo Aliev is 12-0 as a pro and has never needed a finish inside the Octagon. Grant Dawson owns 14 submission wins as a pro, and his two losses are sudden knockouts he would rather forget. Saturday in Abu Dhabi, both men want the same spot on top, and the fight turns on who gets there first.
The common opponent sketches the matchup. Both men beat Joe Solecki by unanimous decision. Dawson piled up 826 seconds of control in 2024, and Aliev took his turn the following January. Aliev's most recent outing was his most dominant. He landed 8 takedowns on 13 attempts against Mike Davis in July and held him for 745 seconds on the way to a 30-27 sweep.
The takedown math
Aliev lands 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes at 58% accuracy. Dawson stops 70% of the takedowns opponents try against him, so he is a sturdy wall but not a sealed one.
The reverse matters more. Dawson averages 3.62 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he converts only 39% of his shots. Aliev stops 80% of attempts against him, though that rate comes from just 60 UFC minutes. Dawson says Aliev will be surprised by how well he wrestles. He also plans a slightly less aggressive first round because he expects Aliev to shoot early, and he has said he won't complain if Aliev holds him down for three rounds. Aliev says he is ready to wrestle or strike, whichever Dawson wants.
Where the finish lives
This is Dawson's clearest edge. He attempts 1.24 submissions per 15 minutes, while Aliev attempts 0.5. Dawson has 5 submission wins in the UFC, most recently a rear-naked choke on Mateusz Rebecki at 4:42 of the third round in May. He finishes late, from top position, after minutes of grinding.** Aliev is 4-0 in the UFC, and all four wins went to the judges.
The risk lives in Dawson's chin. Both of his UFC losses came by knockout: King Green stopped him in 33 seconds, and Manuel Torres finished him at 2:25 of the first round in December. Aliev is not built to repeat that. He lands 1.97 significant strikes a minute and has not scored a knockdown in the UFC, which is why one analyst doubts he is much of a striking threat. At 26, though, he is six years younger than Dawson and still adding pieces.
Weigh-ins and the market
Weigh-ins are complete. Dawson came in at 156 pounds and Aliev at 155, no fine was reported for either man, and the bout is going ahead.
The market sees it nearly even. Dawson is -116 and Aliev -104, so the books give Dawson 51.3% once the margin is removed. That is a slight move from Dawson's first-seen price of -115. The price reflects the fight's core tension. Dawson is the only proven finisher, but Aliev has yet to be taken down and kept there.
The fighters
- Grant Dawson (Grant Dawson): Dawson attempts 1.24 submissions per 15 minutes and has 14 submission wins as a pro, but both of his UFC losses came by knockout.
- Nurullo Aliev (Nurullo Aliev): Aliev is 12-0 as a pro and stops 80% of takedown attempts, though he has won all four UFC fights by decision.
Numbers that matter
| Aliev takedown defense | 80% | Dawson lands only 39% of his own shots, so this is the wall his game plan has to climb. |
|---|---|---|
| Dawson takedown defense | 70% | Aliev shoots at 58% accuracy, so Dawson will likely spend some time on his back. |
| Dawson submission attempts per 15 | 1.24 | The only real finishing threat in a fight between two grinders. |
| Aliev control vs. Davis | 745 | Seconds of control in his last fight, the template he will try to run again. |
| Dawson moneyline | -116 | A near-even price that has drifted slightly toward Dawson from -115. |
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev: quick answers
Who is favored in Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev?
Neither fighter: both are -109 at the sportsbooks.
When is Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev?
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, on the prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev?
Lightweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev?
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.