Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov prediction: Ramazan Temirov's knockout power tests Lone'er Kavanagh's chin in Abu Dhabi

The power problem

Temirov is 3-0 in the UFC, and two of those wins came by knockout inside a round. He averages 3.38 knockdowns per 15 minutes, a rate built on just 22.2 UFC minutes, but the tape backs it up. He dropped CJ Vergara three times before finishing him with a body punch, and he put Steve Erceg down twice before stopping him at 4:21 of the first round in July.

His pro career tells the same story: 12 of his wins have come by knockout with no knockout losses, and he has never been knocked out as a professional. His UFC fights last an average of 7.4 minutes. Kavanagh's last an average of 15.7. That gap in fight length is the whole matchup in miniature.

Charles Johnson, the common thread

Both men have fought Charles Johnson, with very different results. Temirov beat him by unanimous decision in March 2025, though Johnson outlanded him 66 to 55 in significant strikes. Five months later Johnson knocked Kavanagh out with a punch at distance in the second round.

That loss matters because Kavanagh's two UFC defeats are both finishes, one by knockout and one by submission. He is also back just three months after a brutal fight with Brandon Royval. He scored a knockdown in that one but absorbed 84 significant strikes before Royval choked him out in the third round.

Range is Kavanagh's way out

Kavanagh is the taller man, standing 5'6" with a 67-inch reach against Temirov's 5'4" and 63 inches. He is a kickboxer with a counter game. He lands 50% of his significant strikes, and 25% of his landed work goes to the body and 18% to the legs. Temirov aims 81% of his landed strikes at the head, the profile of a man hunting the chin.

The question is whether Kavanagh can stay in range without retreating straight back. In February he went five rounds with Brandon Moreno and outlanded him 97 to 79 for a unanimous decision. That is his blueprint: patient volume, round after round. Temirov makes opponents miss 62% of the time, so the volume has to be clean.

Wrestling as a tiebreaker

Neither man is a grappler first, but Kavanagh has used takedowns when it suited him. Against Felipe dos Santos he landed 4 of 6 attempts and racked up 393 seconds of control. He stops 83% of takedown attempts against him, which matters because Temirov mixes level changes in with his looping overhands. Mixing in a takedown or two would also slow Temirov's forward pressure and steal rounds.

Stakes and fight week

Both fighters made weight on Friday in Abu Dhabi. Kavanagh came in at 125.5 pounds and Temirov at 126, and neither was fined. Both sit in the flyweight top 10, though listings of their exact rankings differ.

"I feel like it puts me back in the top five," Kavanagh said at media day. Temirov called him out after finishing Erceg, a fight that marked his return from a suspension for a positive drug test in 2025. A win had been framed as a step toward Joshua Van, but a newer report says Manel Kape is expected to get the next title shot regardless of this result.

The market sees a near-even fight. Kavanagh is -115 and Temirov is -104.5, and the money has nudged toward the Englishman since Temirov first showed at -108.5.