Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita prediction: Aaron Pico needs takedowns before Losene Keita finds his chin
Pico's wrestling pace should win a long fight, but Keita has the power to end it before the takedowns pile up.
| Aaron Pico | -148 (57.3% implied) |
|---|---|
| Losene Keita | +125 (42.7% implied) |
- Pico likely mixes boxing into early takedowns and grinds rounds; Keita's path is a clean right hand at range before the wrestling settles in.
- Watch Pico's level changes at distance. Each shot he takes from boxing range is a window for Keita's counter right hand.
- Pico is -148 (57.3% implied) after opening at -132 in our feed; Keita's 1.68 knockdowns per 15 minutes are the case against him.
The takedown race
Aaron Pico is a wrestler who learned to box, and his April win over Patricio Pitbull showed which half of that résumé wins him fights. He landed 6 of 13 takedown attempts across three rounds and took a unanimous decision. His UFC rate of 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes is a pace few featherweights can match.
Losene Keita has never attempted a takedown in the UFC, and nobody has put him on the mat yet either. That clean defensive record comes from barely 18 minutes of cage time, so it says little about how he handles a chain wrestler. Keita's game lives at distance, and the clinch barely appears in his output. If Pico gets him against the fence and down, Keita has shown nothing yet about getting back up.
Where Keita's power lives
The risk for Pico is the entry. Keita drops opponents at a rate of 1.68 knockdowns per 15 minutes, and in September he floored Muhammad Naimov twice before an overhand right ended it at 2:54 of the first round. That was his eleventh KO win as a pro, and it earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.
Pico's chin is the question his career keeps asking. Four of his pro losses came by KO, and Lerone Murphy stopped him at 3:21 of the first round of his UFC debut with a spinning back elbow. Only 45% of opponents' significant strikes miss him. Every shot Pico telegraphs from boxing range invites a counter from a fighter with Keita's timing.
If it goes long
Over a full fight, the volume tilts to Pico. He lands 6.16 significant strikes a minute to Keita's 3.91, and he out-landed Pitbull by roughly two to one. Keita is the harder target: 65% of opponents' strikes miss him.
Keita's UFC debut is the warning. Against Nathaniel Wood he landed 52 significant strikes to Wood's 67 and dropped a split decision. A three-round fight decided on pace and control is Pico's fight. Keita, 17-2 as a pro, wants this to end before the scorecards matter.
Fight week and the market
Keita took this bout in September after Arnold Allen withdrew. Accounts differ on why: some describe ongoing rehab, others an injury. Pico weighed in at 145.5 pounds and Keita at 146. The official results do not flag either as a miss, and no fine or catchweight was reported for this bout. Keita has missed weight before, coming in three pounds heavy for a planned bout with Pitbull that was scrapped.
"If I just do my job and be smart, I think it's going to be a good night for us," Pico said. The money agrees so far. Pico sits at -148 with Keita at +125, and our feed first saw Pico at -132, so the movement has run his way.
The fighters
- Aaron Pico (Aaron Pico): Pico averages 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC but has been stopped by KO in four of his pro losses.
- Losene Keita (Losene Keita): Keita has 11 KO wins as a pro and averages 1.68 knockdowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.
Numbers that matter
| Pico takedowns per 15 min | 6.54 | A relentless wrestling pace that carried him to a unanimous decision over Pitbull. |
|---|---|---|
| Keita knockdowns per 15 min | 1.68 | Built largely on dropping Naimov twice, it is the threat Pico must respect on every entry. |
| Pico strike defense | 45% | Opponents land more often than not, a concern against a puncher of Keita's caliber. |
| Keita strike defense | 65% | Keita is hard to hit cleanly, which may push Pico toward the takedowns sooner. |
| Pico moneyline | -148 | Up from -132 when our feed first saw the fight, with the money moving toward Pico. |
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita: quick answers
Who is favored in Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita?
Aaron Pico is the favorite at -148; Losene Keita is +125.
When is Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita?
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, on the main card. That part of the card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita?
Featherweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita?
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.