Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon prediction: Noah Gugnon's first-round fuse tests Kody Steele's porous defense
A Frenchman who has finished every pro win faces an American grappler who has been hit far too often in the UFC.
| Kody Steele | -156 (58.6% implied) |
|---|---|
| Noah Gugnon | +132 (41.4% implied) |
- Gugnon hunts an early finish. Steele's best route is surviving the opening storm and dragging the Frenchman into longer grappling exchanges.
- Watch the first scramble: Steele won his lone UFC fight with a heel hook, and Gugnon choked out his debut opponent in 1:21.
- Steele sits at -155.5, down from -160 as money moves toward Gugnon. Gugnon's entire UFC sample covers just 1.4 minutes.
A finisher who rarely sees round two
Noah Gugnon has never needed the judges. He is 10-2 as a pro, all 10 wins came by finish, and 7 of them ended in the first round. He arrives on a six-fight win streak.
His UFC debut in August took 1:21. He signed on short notice, faced the debuting Miloš Janičić and finished him with a rear-naked choke. That is the whole of his UFC tape, so any per-minute rate attached to his name is noise.
The regional record tells more. Gugnon announced himself in Ares FC with a first-round knockout in his debut there, and he carries clear power even though his overall game is still a work in progress. His grappling tends to serve his offense rather than replace it, and he frames this fight the same way: "We don't do grappling, we do MMA," Gugnon said this week, adding that ground strikes make it "a totally different sport."
Steele's path runs through grappling
Kody Steele is 8-1 as a pro and 1-1 in the UFC, and the two UFC fights could hardly look more different. In May he took Dom Mar Fan down and tore off a heel hook at 3:56 of the first round for his first UFC win. He is a grappler by background who has built a more varied striking attack around pressure.
The worry is what happens on the feet. In his February 2025 debut, Rongzhu beat him 27-30 on all three cards and landed 125 significant strikes on him. Steele absorbs 6.65 significant strikes a minute in the UFC and avoids only 48% of what comes his way. Against a fighter whose wins all came by finish, those leaks matter more than usual.
The takedown is the equalizer. Steele landed his only attempt against Mar Fan, then turned it into the finish. Against Rongzhu he went 1 for 4 and spent most of the fight on the losing end of the exchanges.
Layoff, frame and the price
Steele has not fought in 175 days. He was booked against Gauge Young on August 22 but withdrew about two weeks out, reportedly with an injury. Gugnon, at 26, is five years younger and fought more recently. He is also the taller man, though the two share a 71-inch reach.
Both fighters made weight on Friday at 156 pounds, and no fight-week injury or illness has surfaced for either.
The market still prefers Steele at -155.5, but the price has slipped from -160 since our feed first saw it, with the money drifting toward Gugnon. Bettors are weighing a proven UFC winner with a shaky defensive record against a finisher whose UFC resume fits inside two minutes.
The fighters
- Kody Steele (Kody Steele): Steele absorbs 6.65 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, a liability against an opponent who finishes everyone he beats.
- Noah Gugnon (Noah Gugnon): Gugnon is 10-2 as a pro with all 10 wins by finish and 7 of them in the first round.
Numbers that matter
| Steele strikes absorbed per minute | 6.65 | Steele gets hit often, and Gugnon has the power to make that costly early. |
|---|---|---|
| Gugnon first-round wins | 7 | Seven of Gugnon's 10 pro wins came in round one, so the opening five minutes are his best window. |
| Gugnon UFC minutes | 1.4 | His entire UFC sample is one short choke finish, so his regional record carries more weight than his rates. |
| Steele moneyline | -155.5 | Steele remains the favorite, but the price has drifted from -160 as money comes in on Gugnon. |
Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon: quick answers
Who is favored in Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon?
Kody Steele is the favorite at -156; Noah Gugnon is +132.
When is Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon?
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, on the early prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
What weight class is Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon?
Lightweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon?
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.