Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun prediction: Abubakar Vagaev brings his Chimaev-room wrestling up to middleweight against Malkoun
Two takedown-first fighters share an Abu Dhabi cage, and whichever one dictates the clinch and the scrambles probably takes the cards.
| Abubakar Vagaev | -155 (58.3% implied) |
|---|---|
| Jacob Malkoun | +130 (41.7% implied) |
- Expect a grinding, wrestling-heavy three rounds that likely goes to the judges, with control time deciding close frames.
- Watch Vagaev's entries against Malkoun's takedown defense, which stops just 56% of attempts in the UFC.
- Vagaev is -155 (58.3% no-vig) and the price hasn't moved since our feed first saw it; Malkoun's 4.23 strikes landed per minute is the number to watch on the feet.
Two wrestlers, one top position
This one gets decided by who wins the hand-fighting along the fence. Jacob Malkoun built his UFC career on takedowns: he averages 5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and holds control for 47% of his fight time. Against Nick Maximov he landed 9 of 13 attempts, and he went 3-for-3 on Gerald Meerschaert in May.
Abubakar Vagaev wants the same real estate. In his debut he landed 4 of 10 takedowns on Saygid Izagakhmaev and banked 466 seconds of control. He trains daily alongside Khamzat Chimaev and sees himself as a power wrestler, though he lacks the former champion's explosiveness.
The defensive numbers tilt toward Vagaev. Malkoun stops only 56% of takedown attempts, while Vagaev stopped 71% in his lone UFC fight. That second figure comes from just 15 minutes of work, so treat it as a hint rather than a verdict.
A welterweight moving up
Vagaev, a two-time ACA welterweight champion, debuted at welterweight (77 kg) but says he had been preparing for middleweight and walked around near 100 kilograms. At 5'11" he is the taller man; the two share a 73-inch reach. The cut appears to have gone smoothly: Vagaev weighed 185.5 pounds and Malkoun 186, and no catchweight or fine was reported for this bout. In early October Vagaev mentioned catching a cold in camp, adding that he had recovered; nothing in fight-week coverage suggests otherwise.
The open question is whether his wrestling carries the same weight against a bigger-framed division. Against Izagakhmaev he was outlanded on the feet, 33 significant strikes to 27, and won the fight with control.
Malkoun's striking has quietly grown
The book on Malkoun says he isn't much of a striker, but the recent tape pushes back. He lands 4.23 significant strikes a minute at 57% accuracy, and 92% of those land to the head. In January he swarmed Torrez Finney for 117 significant strikes and a knockdown in a 30-26 sweep.
His losses show the risks. Phil Hawes knocked him out in 18 seconds in his 2020 debut, and a 2023 fight with Cody Brundage ended in a disqualification for strikes to the back of the head. He has won three straight since, all at middleweight, though he returns after 175 days off against Vagaev's 91.
What the market sees
Books make Vagaev a -155 favorite with Malkoun at +130, a 58.3% no-vig chance for the Russian. The line hasn't budged since our feed first recorded it. That price leans on Vagaev's pedigree and camp more than his UFC résumé, which is one decision over an opponent now 0-2 in the promotion. Malkoun, 6-3 in the UFC, has the deeper Octagon file, and his recent opponents went a combined 22-19 entering those fights.
The fighters
- Abubakar Vagaev (Abubakar Vagaev): Went 25-4 as a pro and landed 4 of 10 takedowns with 466 seconds of control in his UFC debut.
- Jacob Malkoun (Jacob Malkoun): Averages 5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes but stops only 56% of the takedowns aimed at him.
Numbers that matter
| Malkoun takedown defense | 56% | The soft spot Vagaev's chain wrestling is built to exploit. |
|---|---|---|
| Malkoun takedowns per 15 min | 5.39 | He'll look to be the one shooting first, which could flip the top-position battle. |
| Vagaev control time vs. Izagakhmaev | 466 | Seconds of control in his debut, the way he won a fight he lost on strike count. |
| Malkoun significant strikes landed per minute | 4.23 | A sharper striking baseline than his reputation suggests, highlighted by 117 landed against Finney. |
| Vagaev moneyline | -155 | A 58.3% no-vig favorite, unchanged since our feed first priced the bout. |
Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun: quick answers
Who is favored in Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun?
Abubakar Vagaev is the favorite at -155; Jacob Malkoun is +130.
When is Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun?
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, on the early prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
What weight class is Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun?
Middleweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun?
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.