Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos prediction: Bolaji Oki drops to featherweight trying to stop a two-fight slide
Oki's first cut to 145 sets up a test of whether his high-volume striking can hold up against a Chute Boxe fighter who closes distance and shoots.
| Bolaji Oki | -108 (49.8% implied) |
|---|---|
| Daniel Santos | -110 (50.2% implied) |
- Expect a fast striking pace at range, with Santos pressing forward and mixing in takedowns to slow Oki down as the rounds go on.
- Watch the third round. Oki was knocked out late in the third by Manoel Sousa in March, and this is his first featherweight cut.
- Oki has moved from +100 to -105 and Santos sits at -115, roughly 48.9% to 51.1% in Oki's favor on the no-vig numbers. Santos lands only 33% of his takedown attempts.
A new division, an old problem
Bolaji Oki arrived in the UFC as a Belgian regional standout, undefeated in LFL and a former Atomic Fighting Championship titleholder. The results have turned on him since. He is 2-3 in the UFC, and the last two losses were stoppages. Mason Jones finished him with elbows from mount in September 2025. Manoel Sousa knocked him out late in the third round in March.
So Oki is changing something. This is the first featherweight fight of his career, after all five of his UFC bouts came at lightweight. He made it: both fighters weighed in at 146 pounds, the non-title featherweight limit, and no fine was reported. Early descriptions of the cut were rough, though, and how well he rehydrated is the first unknown of the night.
The Sousa loss is the worrying one. Oki outlanded him 84 to 71 and was still stopped in the closing minutes, which fits a longstanding knock on his cardio and defense late in fights. A harder cut doesn't help that.
Santos brings the takedowns
Daniel Santos is listed as a striker out of Chute Boxe, but his best work in the UFC has come when he wrestles. He averages 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes and controls opponents for 30% of his fight time.
The catch is accuracy. He lands just 33% of his attempts, and the swings are wide. Against JeongYeong Lee he landed 6 of 18 and stacked up 366 seconds of control in a clear decision. Against Dooho Choi in May he went 0 for 6 and ended up in a slugfest he lost.
Oki stops 75% of takedown attempts, and he has gone three rounds without being taken down or controlled in the Aswell fight. Santos doesn't need to finish his shots, though. Forcing Oki to defend wall entries burns the gas tank that has already failed him.
Volume against open defense
Standing, this should be loud. Oki lands 6.17 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.15, numbers built on a small UFC sample. Oki's volume should find him.
Oki also has the frame. He carries a 73-inch reach to Santos' 67, and almost all of his offense comes at distance. Santos has to walk through that, and his power gives him reason to. He knocked out JooSang Yoo 21 seconds into the second round at UFC 320.
The schedule tilts the comparison. Three of Oki's five UFC opponents were making their debuts, including both men he beat. Santos has yet to face a debutant.
Where the money went
The first price our feed recorded leaned Santos, and the money has drifted the other way. Oki was first seen at +100 and is now -105, with Santos at -115. The vig-free split is close to even. That matches the matchup: Oki has the reach and the volume, Santos the wrestling and the steadier schedule, and both men lost by stoppage in their last fight.
The fighters
- Bolaji Oki (Bolaji Oki): Oki lands 6.17 significant strikes a minute but has been stopped in three of his UFC losses.
- Daniel Santos (Daniel Santos): Santos averages 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes but lands only 33% of his attempts.
Numbers that matter
| Oki strikes landed per minute | 6.17 | Oki's volume should find Santos, whose opponents miss only half their strikes. |
|---|---|---|
| Santos takedown accuracy | 33% | Santos shoots often but misses most of his attempts, and he went 0 for 6 in his last fight. |
| Oki takedown defense | 75% | Oki usually keeps fights standing, where 90% of his landed strikes come at distance. |
| Oki reach | 73 in | Oki has the longer reach against Santos' 67 inches. |
| Santos moneyline | -115 | Santos has eased from -120 as money moved toward Oki. |
Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos: quick answers
Who is favored in Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos?
Daniel Santos is the favorite at -110; Bolaji Oki is -108.
When is Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos?
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, on the early prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
What weight class is Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos?
Featherweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos?
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.