Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov prediction: Asaf Chopurov hunts the finish Colby Thicknesse has never allowed
An unbeaten Russian prospect with 10 stoppages in 11 wins debuts against a Volkanovski training partner whose whole UFC career has gone to the scorecards.
| Colby Thicknesse | +195 (31.9% implied) |
|---|---|
| Asaf Chopurov | -262.5 (68.1% implied) |
- Chopurov presses for an early finish. Thicknesse's path is surviving the opening storm and dragging a debutant into a 15-minute fight.
- Watch what happens when Thicknesse shoots or turns away. Chopurov takes the back the moment an opponent turns.
- Chopurov is -600 (82.4% no-vig), and Thicknesse drifted from +425 to +445. Thicknesse's 33% takedown defense bears on that price most.
A finisher against a fighter who lasts
Asaf Chopurov arrives in the UFC the way prospects are supposed to: 11-0 as a pro, 34-1 as an amateur, and a UAE Warriors bantamweight champion who won the vacant belt in October 2025 and defended it twice. Ten of his 11 pro wins came inside the distance, split evenly with five knockouts and five submissions. His last outing, in July, ended Reece McLaren in 63 seconds.
He switches stances freely and hits harder than a 135-pounder should. He also told anyone listening that he plans to knock Colby Thicknesse out, and that Thicknesse only reached the UFC as a teammate of Alexander Volkanovski. That's pointed talk on a card Volkanovski headlines.
Thicknesse is the stress test. He is 9-1 as a pro and has never been stopped. His one loss was a short-notice decision to Aleksandre Topuria in his UFC debut. All three of his UFC fights went the full 15 minutes, and he has not scored a knockdown in the octagon. This is a fighter who has come back from a broken back and back-to-back concussions. He drags fights long. He does not end them.
The takedown math cuts both ways
Thicknesse's grappling is where this matchup gets dangerous for him. In the UFC he lands takedowns on just 7% of his attempts. He went 0 for 6 against Vince Morales in May and 2 of 14 against Josias Musasa. Every failed shot is a scramble, and Chopurov hunts the back in exactly those moments.
Defensively, Thicknesse stops only 33% of opponents' takedown attempts. That's a thin wall against someone with five pro submission wins. He does carry a real submission game of his own, attempting 1.67 submissions per 15 minutes, so the mat is not a one-way street.
His standup is steady rather than dangerous. He lands 3.24 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.93, and his margins in recent fights have been tight: 46 landed to 48 absorbed against Morales. Those numbers come from 45 UFC minutes against opponents who were a combined 3-9 in the UFC, so they say little about how he handles real power.
Fight week and the price
Both fighters weighed in Friday with no miss or fine reported. Thicknesse was listed at 135.5 and Chopurov at 136. Thicknesse returns after 175 days out, Chopurov after a July finish.
The market sees this as a showcase. Chopurov sits at -600 across six books, an 82.4% no-vig chance, against +445 for Thicknesse. The Australian has drifted from +425 since our feed first priced the fight. He has never been finished, and the gap between that and the price on the debutant is the whole handicap.
The fighters
- Asaf Chopurov (Asaf Chopurov): Unbeaten at 11-0 as a pro, with five knockouts and five submissions among his wins.
- Colby Thicknesse (Colby Thicknesse): Has gone the distance in all three UFC fights but stops only 33% of takedown attempts.
Numbers that matter
| Chopurov wins inside the distance | 10 of 11 | Nearly every pro win has ended early, and Thicknesse has never been finished. |
|---|---|---|
| Thicknesse takedown defense | 33% | A weak barrier against a debutant with five pro submission wins who takes the back on any turn. |
| Thicknesse takedown accuracy | 7% | Failed shots hand Chopurov the scrambles he thrives in. |
| Chopurov moneyline | -600 | An 82.4% no-vig chance, with Thicknesse drifting from +425 to +445. |
Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov: quick answers
Who is favored in Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov?
Asaf Chopurov is the favorite at -262.5; Colby Thicknesse is +195.
When is Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov?
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, on the early prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
What weight class is Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov?
Bantamweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov?
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.