Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari prediction: Nicolle Caliari's 4.5-pound miss sets up a returning Iasmin Lucindo
Caliari comes in heavy and carries a leaky defense, while Lucindo returns from more than a year away and has to prove the time off cost her nothing.
| Iasmin Lucindo | -415 (77% implied) |
|---|---|
| Nicolle Caliari | +315 (23% implied) |
- Lucindo's cleaner defense and decision-heavy game point toward a 15-minute fight, unless Caliari's extra weight and early takedowns change the shape of it.
- Watch Caliari's first takedown entries. She lands 26% of her attempts, and her fade in the Bannon fight came between those scrambles.
- Lucindo sits at -380, about 76% implied, barely moved since first seen. Caliari absorbing 5.88 strikes a minute supports that price.
A weight miss and a long road back
This early prelim changed on Friday. Nicolle Caliari weighed 120.5 pounds, 4.5 over the 116-pound non-title limit, and was the only one of 28 athletes to miss. She forfeits 30% of her purse to Iasmin Lucindo, who made 115 and accepted the catchweight terms.
The miss collides with Lucindo's own question mark. She has not fought in 441 days. A positive test for mesterolone from a September 2025 sample, which she attributed to a contaminated supplement from a Brazilian compounding pharmacy, brought a nine-month suspension that ended June 24. "I've never spent a whole year without competing since I started fighting, so that's a very different experience," Lucindo said. The layoff has also clouded her ranking: one listing still has her inside the top 10, while the UFC says she has dropped out.
Caliari's defense is the soft spot
Caliari is 1-2 in the UFC and 9-4 as a pro, and her three UFC fights add up to just 39.6 minutes. Even so, one trend shows up clearly: she gets hit a lot. She absorbs 5.88 significant strikes a minute and makes only 53% of opponents' strikes miss. Carli Judice landed 109 on her before stopping her with a knee to the body.
Lucindo is not a high-volume striker. She lands 3.22 a minute and absorbs 2.8, with 62% striking defense. She does not need to swarm. Against the Kowalkiewicz version of Lucindo, who out-landed her opponent 83 to 42, Caliari would be in for a long night. Against the version who landed four strikes in a loss to Amanda Lemos, she would have a chance to steal rounds.
The takedown game decides the margins
Caliari's route is wrestling. She averages 3.03 takedowns per 15 minutes but lands only 26% of her attempts. She went 3-for-14 against Ernesta Kareckaite. Against Shauna Bannon she rode 558 seconds of control to a third-round arm-triangle, though she gassed out badly between the grappling exchanges.
Lucindo stops 69% of takedown attempts and holds control for 25% of her fight time, so she can grapple back. The concern is that her wrestling has been less effective against stronger athletes. A heavier Caliari could test exactly that. Four of Lucindo's five UFC wins came by decision, so if Caliari's gas tank fails again, the late rounds favor the more experienced fighter.
What the price says
Lucindo is a -380 favorite with Caliari at +300, about 76% to 24% once the margin is removed. The line has barely moved since our feed first recorded Caliari at +297.5, and the weight-miss news did not shift it. That makes the market's bet on Lucindo's composure and defense over any extra weight Caliari carries on fight night.
The fighters
- Iasmin Lucindo (Iasmin Lucindo): Lucindo is 5-2 in the UFC with 62% striking defense, but she returns after 441 days out.
- Nicolle Caliari (Nicolle Caliari): Caliari averages 3.03 takedowns per 15 minutes but lands just 26% of her attempts.
Numbers that matter
| Caliari weigh-in | 120.5 lbs | She came in 4.5 pounds over the 116-pound limit and forfeits 30% of her purse. |
|---|---|---|
| Caliari strikes absorbed per minute | 5.88 | That is well above the 3.22 strikes a minute Lucindo typically lands. |
| Lucindo days since last fight | 441 | Her suspension ended June 24, and this is her first fight back. |
| Caliari takedown accuracy | 26% | Her wrestling is her best path to victory, but most of her attempts fail. |
| Lucindo moneyline | -380 | Implies about 76%, nearly unchanged since first seen. |
Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari: quick answers
Who is favored in Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari?
Iasmin Lucindo is the favorite at -415; Nicolle Caliari is +315.
When is Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari?
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, on the early prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
What weight class is Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari?
Women's Strawweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari?
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.