Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies prediction: Mike MacDonald's Bonnies debut with a size edge over Youngstown State
Two nearly rebuilt rosters open the season in Olean, and the clearest gap between them is St. Bonaventure's length against a Penguins team built on guards.
| Spread | St. Bonaventure -10.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 153.5 |
- Expect St. Bonaventure's size to work the paint while a rebuilt Youngstown State backcourt hunts threes in both teams' season opener.
- Linus Holmstrom, a 39.4% three-point shooter at VMI last season, against a Bonnies frontcourt anchored by Joe Grahovac and Ryan Kalambay.
- St. Bonaventure is favored by 10.5, up from 9.5, with a 153.5 total. Youngstown State returns 5.2% of last season's minutes.
Two programs starting over
Almost nobody on the Reilly Center floor Monday night will look familiar. Youngstown State kept one player from last season and added 13 new ones. Its returners account for just 5.2% of last season's minutes.
St. Bonaventure brings back 14.0%, and the bench is new too. Mark Schmidt retired after 19 seasons, and Mike MacDonald opens his first year after a long run at Daemen. He carries a 522-312 career record and brought senior guards Zach Philipkoski and Ryan Heath with him.
Ethan Faulkner is in his third season at Youngstown State with a 36-30 record. He rebuilt through the transfer portal after a 15-17 finish. With this much turnover, last season's team numbers are a weak guide. The players who are actually here tell the story better.
Length against the three-ball
The clearest difference between these rosters is size. Weighted by minutes, St. Bonaventure's roster averages 79.9 inches. Youngstown State's averages 75.7. The Penguins' incoming transfers are mostly guards, and their 7-foot center from last season, Zorgvol, left for Hofstra.
The Bonnies' rim protection has a holdover. Joe Grahovac blocked 1.6 shots a game last season, starting 14 of 34 games. He was part of a defense that ranked 19th nationally in block rate, the share of opponents' two-point tries that get swatted. Detroit Mercy transfer Ryan Kalambay averaged 1.4 blocks last season and never attempted a three. He should live near the basket.
Youngstown State will likely answer from outside. Holmstrom made 39.4% of his threes at VMI last season. He took 198 of them, the volume of a featured shooter. Wofford transfer Jayden Tyler hit 47.5% from deep in a smaller role. If those two find clean looks, the Bonnies' length matters less. If MacDonald's guards chase them off the line, the Penguins have to drive into the size.
Replacing the scorers
Both teams lost their top scorers. Darryl Simmons II averaged 16.4 points for St. Bonaventure and is now at Villanova. Frank Mitchell, who added 16.3 points a game, is gone too. Youngstown State lost Cris Carroll, last season's 17.4-point scorer.
NJIT transfer Ari Fulton is the most proven piece the Bonnies added. He averaged 10.9 points and 6.2 rebounds last season. His outside shot is the question: he made 26.2% of his threes.
The Bonnies may also be thinner at forward. As of Oct. 26, Penn State transfer Mason Blackwood was sidelined with a foot injury suffered after the Oct. 17 exhibition against Penn State. The team said he would undergo further evaluation, and no newer update has followed.
Youngstown State's lone returner, sophomore guard Jaiden Haynes, averaged 4.8 points last season. Everyone else on the Penguins roster is new to the program, and that includes four true freshmen.
What the line says
St. Bonaventure is a 10.5-point favorite, a point higher than the first line we recorded. The money has moved toward the home team, and the Bonnies' moneyline sits at -610. The total has climbed to 153.5 from 152.0.
The only recent meeting was close. St. Bonaventure won 84-80 at home last November, but almost none of the players from that game remain. With no games played and rosters this new, the market is pricing coaching, size and home floor more than any shared history. The first few minutes, and how Youngstown State's guards handle the Bonnies' length, will say a lot about whether that double-digit number holds up.
Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies line movement and odds
| Book | Penguins ML | Bonnies ML | Penguins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +425 | -600 | +10.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +390 | -560 | +10.5 (-118) | o153.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +440 | -600 | +10.5 (-112) | o153.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +450 | -700 | +10.5 (-115) | o153.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +430 | -600 | +10.5 (-115) | o153.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +440 | -610 | +10.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +400 | -550 | +10.5 (-115) | o153.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +430 | -600 | +10.5 (-110) | o152 (-110) |
Where the money is on Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies
On the Kalshi moneyline: Youngstown St Penguins: 59% of bets, 59% of the money; St. Bonaventure Bonnies: 42% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies -10.5: 33% of bets, 85% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins +10.5: 67% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 153.5: 84% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 153.5: 16% of bets, 4% of the money.
Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies stats (this season)
| Stat | Youngstown St Penguins | St. Bonaventure Bonnies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 105.7 (230th of 365) | 114.6 (86th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 109.6 (183rd of 365) | 111.6 (227th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -3.9 (210th of 365) | 3.0 (133rd of 365) |
Key players
- Ari Fulton (St. Bonaventure): Started 32 games at NJIT last season and averaged 10.9 points and 6.2 rebounds.
- Joe Grahovac (St. Bonaventure): Blocked 1.6 shots a game last season and made 36.9% of his threes.
- Ryan Kalambay (St. Bonaventure): Shot 57.5% from the field last season with 1.4 blocks a game.
- Linus Holmstrom (Youngstown State): Averaged 11.4 points at VMI last season and hit 39.4% of his threes.
- Jayden Tyler (Youngstown State): Made 47.5% of his threes at Wofford last season in 13.2 minutes a game.
- Jaiden Haynes (Youngstown State): Averaged 4.8 points last season and shot 81.8% at the line.
Numbers that matter
| YSU returning minutes | 5.2% | Youngstown State's share of last season's minutes played by players still on the roster. |
|---|---|---|
| Bonnies average height | 79.9 | St. Bonaventure's minutes-weighted average height in inches, against 75.7 for Youngstown State. |
| Spread | -10.5 | St. Bonaventure's current spread, up from -9.5 when first recorded. |
| Holmstrom from three | 39.4% | His three-point percentage at VMI last season, on 198 attempts. |
| Bonnies block-rate rank | 19th | Last season's national rank in block rate, with Grahovac one of the few holdovers. |
Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies: quick answers
Who is favored in Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
St. Bonaventure is favored by 10.5 points (St. Bonaventure -10.5).
What is the over/under for Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
The total is 153.5 points.
When is Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies played?
Reilly Center, Saint Bonaventure, NY.
Has the line moved for Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
Yes: Youngstown St Penguins opened +8.5 and is now +10.5, and the total moved from 151 to 153.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Youngstown St Penguins vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Youngstown St Penguins: 59% of bets, 59% of the money; St. Bonaventure Bonnies: 42% of bets, 41% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies -10.5: 33% of bets, 85% of the money; Youngstown St Penguins +10.5: 67% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 153.5: 84% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 153.5: 16% of bets, 4% of the money.