UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats prediction: Without RJ Godfrey, Arizona leans on Krivas to overpower rebuilt UCLA
Arizona brings a top-five ranking and a mostly new roster to Las Vegas, and its best edge is size against a UCLA team that struggled on the defensive glass last season.
| Spread | Arizona -5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- Arizona wants a fast, physical game decided at the rim and on the glass; UCLA wants a slow game decided by threes.
- Motiejus Krivas and Arizona's second chances against a UCLA frontcourt that ranked 317th in defensive rebound rate last season.
- Arizona is -4.5 with a 149.5 total, unchanged since our feed first saw the line. Last season's adjusted net ratings ranked Arizona 3rd, UCLA 31st.
A new Arizona, minus its power forward
Arizona opens as the No. 5 team in the country with almost none of the team that earned the reputation. The Wildcats return just 27.5% of last season's minutes. Brayden Burries, Jaden Bradley and Koa Peat are gone, and freshman Caleb Holt steps into Burries' spot at off-guard.
The bigger hole is at power forward. RJ Godfrey, the Clemson transfer slotted in as the starter, is ineligible for the opener after a Texas judge tentatively denied a temporary restraining order in his fifth-year eligibility case around Oct. 30. A Monday preview hinted at a late development from a Waco judge without details, and no ruling has been reported, so treat him as out unless Arizona says otherwise.
That puts even more on Motiejus Krivas, the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year. The center averaged 8.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks last season. As of mid-October he and guard JJ Mandaquit were working back from injuries and could face minutes limits, and no update has surfaced since. Forward Evan Otten had returned to practice in early October from a lower-body injury. Bryce James has started five of Arizona's last six exhibitions, and Tommy Lloyd rarely changes a lineup once he sets it.
The glass is UCLA's weak spot
Last season Arizona grabbed 38.4% of its own misses (offensive rebound rate), 7th in the country. UCLA's defense corralled only 66.8% of opponents' misses, 317th. Those numbers belong to old rosters, but the size gap carries over: Arizona's lineup averages 80.2 inches weighted by minutes, UCLA's 77.9.
Arizona also lived at the line last season, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 43.9%, 9th nationally. If Krivas and the Wildcats' bigs win second chances and draw contact, UCLA's guards will be chasing all night. Mick Cronin's answer may depend on who starts inside. One preview has Xavier Booker at center with Auburn transfer Filip Jović behind him, while another lists five-star freshman Nikola Kusturica with Trent Perry, Jaylen Petty and Eric Dailey Jr.
UCLA needs threes and a slow night
These teams play at opposite speeds. UCLA ranked 310th in pace last season, while Arizona ranked 34th. Every slow, patient UCLA possession is one fewer chance for Arizona's size to take over.
The Bruins' path runs through the arc. They hit 37.9% of their threes last season, 20th nationally, and rarely gave the ball away. Arizona's shot profile went the other way: its 3-point attempt rate of 26.4% ranked 363rd, among the lowest in the country. Perry, Booker and Texas Tech transfer Petty all shot well from deep last season, which partly offsets the loss of Tyler Bilodeau. If UCLA's shooters get hot and keep the game in the half court, an underdog that returns more of its minutes than Arizona has a real path.
What the market is saying
Arizona is favored by 4.5, and the total sits at 149.5. Neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game on Nov. 1. Last season's final adjusted ratings put Arizona 3rd in net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and UCLA 31st, a gap that looked wider than this spread. With roster turnover that heavy and Godfrey out, the market is pricing a much closer game than last season's ratings suggested.
The rivalry supports that view. These two have played on neutral floors three seasons running. Arizona won 69-65 at Intuit Dome last November, and UCLA won the December 2024 meeting 57-54. The total depends on the pace fight: UCLA dragging the game to a crawl helps the under, while Arizona running and getting to the line pushes it up.
UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats line movement and odds
| Book | Bruins ML | Wildcats ML | Bruins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 | +4.5 (-102) | o149.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +160 | -210 | +4.5 (-105) | o149.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +180 | -218 | +5.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +170 | -200 | +5.5 (-120) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +170 | -205 | +4.5 (-105) | o149.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | +184 | -225 | +5.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +175 | -210 | +4.5 (-105) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +178 | -215 | +4.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats
On the Kalshi moneyline: UCLA Bruins: 45% of bets, 26% of the money; Arizona Wildcats: 56% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona Wildcats -4.5: 67% of bets, 23% of the money; UCLA Bruins +4.5: 34% of bets, 77% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 47% of bets, 69% of the money; Under 149.5: 53% of bets, 31% of the money.
UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats stats (this season)
| Stat | UCLA Bruins | Arizona Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 123.0 (29th of 365) | 126.7 (8th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 101.3 (47th of 365) | 88.9 (3rd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 21.7 (31st of 365) | 37.9 (3rd of 365) |
Key players
- Motiejus Krivas (Arizona): Averaged 10.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks last season, and his minutes were possibly limited by a foot injury as of mid-October.
- Ivan Kharchenkov (Arizona): Started all 39 games last season, averaging 10.4 points and 1.4 steals.
- Derek Dixon (Arizona): Made 50 threes at 39.7% for North Carolina last season, shooting Arizona badly needs.
- Trent Perry (UCLA): Averaged 12.6 points last season and shot 39.2% from three and 85.8% at the line.
- Jaylen Petty (UCLA): Hit 69 threes at 37.5% for Texas Tech last season.
- Xavier Booker (UCLA): Shot 43.3% from three last season while blocking 1.2 shots a game.
- Eric Dailey Jr. (UCLA): Started all 35 games last season, averaging 11.6 points and 5.8 rebounds.
Numbers that matter
| Arizona offensive rebound rate, last season | 38.4% | Ranked 7th nationally, the Wildcats' clearest edge against a UCLA team that struggled on the defensive glass. |
|---|---|---|
| UCLA defensive rebound rate rank, last season | 317th | UCLA let opponents keep possessions alive, a problem against a bigger Arizona lineup. |
| Arizona returning minutes | 27.5% | Most of last season's 36-3 team is gone, which makes old team numbers a weak guide. |
| UCLA 3-point %, last season | 37.9% | Ranked 20th, and shooting is the underdog's clearest path to an upset. |
| Spread | -4.5 | Arizona is favored by 4.5, unchanged since our feed first saw the game. |
UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats: quick answers
Who is favored in UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats?
Arizona is favored by 5 points (Arizona -5).
What is the over/under for UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats played?
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.
Has the line moved for UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats?
No: UCLA Bruins has stayed at +4.5, and the total moved from 150.5 to 149.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UCLA Bruins vs Arizona Wildcats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UCLA Bruins: 45% of bets, 26% of the money; Arizona Wildcats: 56% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona Wildcats -4.5: 67% of bets, 23% of the money; UCLA Bruins +4.5: 34% of bets, 77% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 47% of bets, 69% of the money; Under 149.5: 53% of bets, 31% of the money.