Seattle Redhawks vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors prediction: Seattle U's turnover-hunting defense greets Hawai'i's 13 newcomers in Honolulu

Thirteen new faces in Honolulu

Eran Ganot has rebuilt rosters before, but rarely from this close to zero. Entering his 12th season, Hawai'i's coach opens the program's first Mountain West campaign with 13 newcomers. The team that won the Big West crown in its final season in that league is almost entirely gone, and the players on this roster accounted for just 9.7% of last season's minutes.

Seattle U arrives with a head start. Chris Victor, in his sixth season, brings back 45.8% of last season's minutes, and the Redhawks already have a result to point to: a 71-65 exhibition win at Oregon on Oct. 15, sealed by a 19-2 second-half run. That continuity is why last season's numbers say far more about the visitors than the hosts.

Isaiah Kerr is Hawai'i's lone returner of note, a bench guard last season. Tanner Cuff, a senior forward who transferred from Evansville and didn't play a minute in 2025-26, attended Mountain West media day with Kerr on Oct. 7. No health update on him has surfaced since. Marcus Adams Jr. sat out the final 19 games of last season with a lower-leg injury before transferring in, and his current status is unknown.

Seattle's hands, Hawai'i's ball security

Seattle U won with defense last season. The Redhawks ranked 11th nationally in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), and they forced turnovers on 21.4% of opponent possessions, also 11th. Arington, the steals leader, is back. So is Will Heimbrodt, a forward who averaged 2.6 blocks.

Hawai'i gave the ball away on 18.7% of its possessions last season, 299th in the country. That was a different backcourt, so treat it as a warning rather than a forecast. The new perimeter group centers on Chance Trujillo, the Utah Tech transfer who posted a 115 offensive rating, a measure of points produced per 100 possessions used. A first game together against a pressing, swiping defense is the worst possible test for ball security.

The question for Seattle runs the other way. Its offense ranked 309th in efficiency last season, and its two best shooters, Brayden Maldonado and John Christofilis, are gone. Holy Cross transfer Tyler Boston shot 35.9% from three last season and has to carry that load. Junseok Yeo, the top returning scorer, hit 29.5% from deep.

Inside, at the rim and the line

Last season's Hawai'i lived inside. It made 55.5% of its twos, 58th nationally, and its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 29th. The new pieces lean the same way. Zack Davidson posted a 62.0% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) at Northern Arizona, though he made only 46.3% of his free throws.

That runs straight into Seattle's length at the rim. The Redhawks blocked 13.7% of opponent two-point attempts last season, 17th in the country, with Heimbrodt as the anchor. One subplot: center Houran Dan transferred to Hawai'i from Seattle U and now faces the teammates he practiced against all last season.

Hawai'i's own defense took away the arc. Opponents took just 32.5% of their shots from three, 352nd of 365, and made 30.0%, 13th-best. Against a Seattle team short on proven shooters, that profile travels even with new personnel.

A short number that crept

Eight books quote Hawai'i at -1.75, nudged up from -1.5 when our feed first saw the game. The total dipped to 144.5 from 145.5. Both moves fit a defense-first read of an opener between two rosters still sorting out their offense.

Pace is the variable. Hawai'i ran 71.4 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 31st nationally, while Seattle U played at a middling tempo and allowed 67.3 points per game, 29th. With a roster this new, Ganot's preferred tempo matters more than last season's numbers. The near-even adjusted ratings explain the tight spread, and home floor accounts for the rest. Tip is listed for 7 p.m. Hawaii time.