Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack prediction: Robert Morris tests its rebuilt roster against Nevada's free-throw machine in Reno
The Colonials lost the three players who powered last season's offence, and Nevada's habit of living at the line will show quickly how much they kept.
| Spread | Nevada -13 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 144.5 |
- Expect a slow, half-court game in which Nevada's trips to the line and Robert Morris's rebuilt shooting decide the margin.
- Nevada's foul-drawing attack against a Robert Morris defence that sent opponents to the line far too often last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet; last season Nevada finished 69th in adjusted net efficiency, Robert Morris 148th.
Robert Morris starts over again
Robert Morris was picked second in the Horizon League preseason poll, behind only Wright State, even though the core of last season's 22-11 team is gone. The Colonials' season ended in the Horizon League semifinals against Detroit Mercy, and then the roster scattered.
Ryan Prather Jr. scored 15.9 points a game and left for Iowa State. DeSean Goode left for Miami after posting an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 69.4% last season. Nikos Chitikoudis, the third double-figure scorer, is now at Xavier.
The returners played 55.3% of last season's minutes but scored only 44.7% of its points. That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. The hope rests on guard Darius Livingston and UMBC transfer Ace Valentine, both named to the preseason All-League second team, plus a group of freshmen that includes Lukas Sloane and Stefan Bozhinovski. Andrew Toole, in his 16th season, has rebuilt rosters before.
Nevada lives at the line
Nevada's offence was built on contact last season. Its free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) was 44.8%, fifth of 365. That made up for poor finishing: the Wolf Pack hit just 48.2% of their twos, 329th nationally.
That is a bad draw for Robert Morris. The Colonials ranked 309th in opponent free throw rate last season, and they rarely got to the line themselves, ranking 345th in free throw rate. In a slow game, a steady run of extra free throws for the home team can decide the margin. Nevada hit 75.7% at the line; Robert Morris hit 69.2%.
The glass without the bigs
Last season Robert Morris grabbed 38.2% of its own misses, eighth in the country. Nevada's defensive rebounding ranked 46th, so this was a real strength-on-strength matchup.
The problem is who did that work. Goode averaged 8.7 rebounds and Chitikoudis 7.7, and both are gone. The top returners are all guards. Nevada was also the bigger team last season by minutes-weighted height, 77.1 inches to 76.3. Unless the freshmen frontcourt grows up fast, the Colonials' best edge from last season may not make the trip.
Slow pace, shooting and schedule
Neither team wants to run. Robert Morris ranked 339th in pace last season and Nevada 312th, so expect few possessions and a long half-court night.
The Colonials' shooting is the part that carries over most easily. They made 37.5% of their threes, 25th nationally, and Livingston hit 39.4% on 155 attempts. Nevada allowed plenty of looks from deep, so the guards should get shots.
Schedule strength matters too. Robert Morris's offence ranked 47th before adjusting for opponents and 139th after. Adjusted efficiency is points per 100 possessions, corrected for the quality of opponents, and it favoured Nevada clearly by season's end. Steve Alford, in his eighth season, gets a Monday home game to show how much of that holds.
Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack line movement and odds
| Book | Colonials ML | Pack ML | Colonials spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +675 | -1100 | +13.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +600 | -1000 | +13.5 (-117) | o145.5 (-106) |
| DraftKings | +675 | -1050 | +12.5 (-105) | o144.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +800 | -1600 | +13.5 (-105) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +650 | -1000 | +13 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +720 | -1200 | +13.5 (-112) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +600 | -1000 | +13.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +650 | -1000 | +13 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack
On the Kalshi moneyline: Robert Morris Colonials: 68% of bets, 8% of the money; Nevada Wolf Pack: 32% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Nevada Wolf Pack -13.5: 90% of bets, 38% of the money; Robert Morris Colonials +13.5: 10% of bets, 63% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 144.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Nevada Wolf Pack (1 wallet, $216). Largest: forecastication4 $216 on Nevada Wolf Pack.
Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack stats (this season)
| Stat | Robert Morris Colonials | Nevada Wolf Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 110.8 (139th of 365) | 115.1 (82nd of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 109.1 (175th of 365) | 102.8 (69th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 1.6 (148th of 365) | 12.3 (69th of 365) |
Key players
- Darius Livingston (Robert Morris): Last season he scored 9.6 points a game and hit 39.4% of his threes on 155 attempts.
- Albert Vargas (Robert Morris): Last season he averaged 3.9 assists and made 87.5% of his free throws, a rare sure hand at the line for this team.
- Ta'Zir Smith (Robert Morris): Last season he averaged 6.7 points with a 110.1 offensive rating off the bench and in spot starts.
Numbers that matter
| Nevada free throw rate, last season | 44.8% | Fifth of 365, and the engine of an offence that finished poorly inside. |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Morris opponent free throw rate rank, last season | 309th | The Colonials fouled often, which plays straight into Nevada's strength. |
| Robert Morris offensive rebound %, last season | 38.2% | Eighth nationally, though the two forwards who drove it have left. |
| Robert Morris returning points | 44.7% | Less than half of last season's scoring is back, so its old team numbers are a shaky guide. |
Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack: quick answers
Who is favored in Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack?
Nevada is favored by 13 points (Nevada -13).
What is the over/under for Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack?
The total is 144.5 points.
When is Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack played?
Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV.
Has the line moved for Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack?
Yes: Robert Morris Colonials opened +12 and is now +13.5, and the total moved from 143.5 to 144.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Robert Morris Colonials: 68% of bets, 8% of the money; Nevada Wolf Pack: 32% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Nevada Wolf Pack -13.5: 90% of bets, 38% of the money; Robert Morris Colonials +13.5: 10% of bets, 63% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 144.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 144.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Robert Morris Colonials vs Nevada Wolf Pack?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Nevada Wolf Pack (1 wallet, $216). Largest: forecastication4 $216 on Nevada Wolf Pack. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.