North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies prediction: North Alabama's 12 newcomers debut against UC Davis's turnover pressure
The Lions open with an almost entirely new roster, and their first test is a fast UC Davis team built to punish unfamiliar ball handlers.
| Spread | UC Davis -9.25 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 148.5 |
- UC Davis pushes tempo and pressure at home while a reassembled North Alabama roster learns itself in real time. The Aggies' continuity should tell early.
- Connor Sevilla's shooting against a Lions perimeter defense made up almost entirely of players who weren't on last season's roster.
- UC Davis is favored by 9, down from 9.5. North Alabama returns just 13.5% of last season's minutes.
A roster built from scratch
Tonight's opener in Davis, set for 10 p.m. ET, is really two different first days. North Alabama returns three players and adds 12 newcomers, 10 of them transfers. Those returners account for just 13.5% of last season's minutes, so the Lions' 9-21 finish in 2025-26 and last season's adjusted net rank of 342nd of 365 (adjusted efficiency is points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) say little about this group.
The production that left is substantial. Donte Bacchus averaged 14.7 points, and Corneilous Williams, now at Memphis, pulled down 9.3 rebounds a game. The replacements arrive with modest résumés. Mike Evbagharu started 28 games at Canisius and averaged 9.2 points and 7.0 rebounds. Damarien Yates gives Tony Pujol a floor-spacing forward after hitting 34.5% from three off the bench at Alabama State.
Pressure on new ball handlers
UC Davis's defense did its best work in the passing lanes last season. The Aggies forced turnovers on 20.7% of opponent possessions, 22nd in Division I. That is a rough welcome for a backcourt playing its first meaningful game together, and guards Braylon Patton and Cortez Graham-Howard are the only returners who played real minutes.
Tempo adds to the strain. UC Davis played at 71.3 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 32nd nationally, while North Alabama crawled at 65.6, ranked 286th. Last season's pace numbers belong partly to departed players, but the Aggies return about half their minutes (52.6%). The longer UC Davis dictates the speed, the harder it gets for a newly assembled offense to stay organized.
Sevilla leads the returning core
The Aggies' continuity runs through Connor Sevilla. He started all 31 of his games last season and shot 40.2% from three with a 90.3% mark at the line. Isaiah Chappell adds a second volume shooter after making 58 threes, and San Francisco transfer Veniamin Abosi hit 40.4% from deep in a reserve role.
UC Davis still has holes to fill. Marcus Wilson left for Sacramento State, Nils Cooper for UC Irvine and Carl Daughtery Jr. for Kansas City. Brayden Fagbemi, who averaged 4.3 assists off the bench, is the likeliest player to absorb more of the playmaking.
The whistle cuts both ways
Free throws were a double-edged part of UC Davis's identity last season. The Aggies drew a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 40.6%, 49th nationally. They also sent opponents to the line at a 39.9% rate, ranked 310th.
That foul habit is the clearest path for North Alabama to hang around, provided the newcomers can convert. Last season's Lions made only 68.8% of their free throws. Evbagharu shot 65% at Canisius and Yates 64.8% at Alabama State, so extra trips to the line won't automatically become points.
Where the number sits
Seven books quote UC Davis at -9, with the moneyline at -465. Our feed first saw the Aggies at -9.5, so the small move has come toward North Alabama. The total sits at 148, up from 147.5. The half-point rise is small, and the packet does not say what drove it.
The home crowd gets a full day of basketball. The UC Davis women's team plays Jessup at 4 p.m. as the first half of a doubleheader. The Aggies are also opening their first Mountain West season, so this nonconference tune-up is their first chance to work out a rotation before league play arrives.
North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies line movement and odds
| Book | Lions ML | Aggies ML | Lions spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +350 | -475 | +9.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +350 | -500 | +9.5 (-113) | o151.5 (-117) |
| DraftKings | +350 | -455 | +9.5 (-112) | o150.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +360 | -500 | +9.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +360 | -475 | +9.5 (-110) | o151 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +340 | -450 | +9.5 (-115) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +350 | -475 | +9.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +360 | -480 | +9.5 (-110) | o151.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies
On the Kalshi moneyline: North Alabama Lions: 47% of bets, 6% of the money; UC Davis Aggies: 53% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UC Davis Aggies -9.5: 62% of bets, 68% of the money; North Alabama Lions +9.5: 38% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 63% of bets, 72% of the money; Under 147.5: 38% of bets, 28% of the money.
North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies stats (this season)
| Stat | North Alabama Lions | UC Davis Aggies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 98.9 (331st of 365) | 107.7 (196th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 119.2 (340th of 365) | 108.1 (148th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -20.3 (342nd of 365) | -0.4 (170th of 365) |
Key players
- Connor Sevilla (UC Davis): Shot 40.2% from three and 90.3% from the line last season while starting all 31 of his games.
- Isaiah Chappell (UC Davis): Made 58 threes last season at a 35.6% clip, giving the Aggies a second perimeter threat.
- Brayden Fagbemi (UC Davis): Averaged 4.3 assists and 2.0 steals last season, central to both the playmaking and the pressure.
- Mike Evbagharu (North Alabama): Started 28 games at Canisius last season, averaging 9.2 points and 7.0 rebounds.
- Damarien Yates (North Alabama): Hit 34.5% from three at Alabama State last season with a 108.6 offensive rating.
- Braylon Patton (North Alabama): The Lions' top returner played 16.5 minutes a game last season with a 24.4% usage rate.
Numbers that matter
| UNA returning minutes | 13.5% | North Alabama's roster played only this share of last season's minutes, so its 2025-26 team numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| UC Davis forced turnover rate | 20.7% | Last season's mark ranked 22nd nationally, a direct threat to an unfamiliar Lions backcourt. |
| UC Davis pace | 71.3 | Possessions per 40 minutes last season, 32nd in Division I, against North Alabama's 65.6. |
| UC Davis opponent free throw rate | 39.9% | Ranked 310th last season, the foul habit that could keep the underdog within reach. |
| Spread | -9 | UC Davis is favored by 9 after our feed first saw the line at -9.5. |
North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies: quick answers
Who is favored in North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies?
UC Davis is favored by 9.25 points (UC Davis -9.25).
What is the over/under for North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies?
The total is 148.5 points.
When is North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies played?
University Credit Union Center, Davis, CA.
Has the line moved for North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies?
Yes: North Alabama Lions opened +10 and is now +9.5, and the total moved from 147 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on North Alabama Lions vs UC Davis Aggies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: North Alabama Lions: 47% of bets, 6% of the money; UC Davis Aggies: 53% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UC Davis Aggies -9.5: 62% of bets, 68% of the money; North Alabama Lions +9.5: 38% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 147.5: 63% of bets, 72% of the money; Under 147.5: 38% of bets, 28% of the money.