Montana St Bobcats vs Colorado St Rams prediction: Colorado State's shooters test Montana State's three-point wall in Fort Collins

Threes against a wall

Montana State opens as the Big Sky's preseason favorite, the first time under Matt Logie that the Bobcats topped both league polls. Its first test comes tonight in Fort Collins against a Colorado State team starting its first Pac-12 season, and the matchup turns on one question: can a defense that takes away the three do it against a team built to shoot them?

Last season Colorado State took 49.0% of its shots from deep, 22nd-most in Division I, and made 38.5% of them, 11th nationally. Montana State pushed opponents the other way. Only 34.0% of opponent shots came from three, which ranked 336th of 365 in attempt rate, among the fewest allowed anywhere.

The catch for the Bobcats is what sits behind that perimeter pressure. They rarely blocked shots, and the Rams were just as dangerous inside, hitting 58.0% of their twos (25th). Run Colorado State off the line and it can still score. The Rams did lose Brandon Rechsteiner, who made 85 threes and is now at Kansas State, so some of that volume has to come from new hands.

Who is actually back

These are last season's numbers, and rosters moved. Montana State returns 66.9% of its minutes, Colorado State 57.9%. That gives the Bobcats the steadier baseline, especially in the backcourt.

Jed Miller is the reason. The preseason all-conference guard averaged 14.9 points last season and started every game. Jeremiah Davis and Seth Amunrud both shot 40% from three in support roles. Montana State does lose Patrick McMahon and Davian Brown, two of its top scorers.

Colorado State's shooters mostly stayed. Josh Pascarelli made 41.5% of his threes, and Carey Booth and Kyle Jorgensen gave the Rams forwards who stretch the floor. Jorgensen missed time with an injury last season and is back. The newcomer who matters most is Justin Menard, a Marist transfer who averaged 12.9 points there and now inherits ball-handling duties. Colorado State listed no injuries as of Oct. 30. No injury news has surfaced for Montana State.

Giveaways and the foul line

Colorado State's weakness last season was the ball. Its turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) was 18.9%, which ranked 311th. Montana State is not the team to exploit it: the Bobcats ranked 209th in forcing turnovers last season.

The free-throw battle is more interesting. The Rams drew fouls well, with a free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 39.3%, 70th nationally. Montana State defended without fouling, ranking 35th in opponent free throw rate. If the Bobcats keep Colorado State off the line and off the arc at once, the Rams' offense has to earn everything over long possessions.

A slow game, a moving number

Colorado State played at 62.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 361st of 365, one of the slowest tempos in the country. On their floor, the Rams will set the pace, which caps how many shots either team gets.

The market still climbed on the total, from 145.5 when our feed first saw it to 147 now. The spread drifted the other way, from -11.5 to -11, a small move toward Montana State. Last season's final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked Colorado State 93rd and Montana State 129th, a gap that supports a home favorite but not a blowout by default. Opening-night lines are built largely on those holdover ratings, and the Bobcats' returning core is the best argument that they are stale.