Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons prediction: San Francisco's near-total rebuild opens as a 13.5-point home favorite
Both programs turned over almost their entire rotations, yet the market has moved further toward the Dons since the line first appeared.
| Spread | San Francisco -13.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 154.5 |
- Expect San Francisco's home floor and deeper newcomer class to pull away late. Two rosters with almost no shared history make the opening minutes hard to read.
- Watch Ben Oosterbaan, a 36.8% three-point shooter at St. Thomas last season, against a Radford backcourt built from transfers.
- San Francisco is -13.5, up from -10 when our feed first saw it, despite returning just 1.4% of last season's minutes.
Two teams starting from zero
Season openers rarely feature two rosters this unfamiliar to their own fans. San Francisco returns 1.4% of last season's minutes, which means almost nothing beyond the jerseys carries over. Radford is barely more settled at 9.1%. Tonight's tip at The Sobrato Center is 10 p.m. ET, and it is only the second meeting all time between the programs.
The market has still taken a firm side. The Dons opened at -10 in our feed and now sit at -13.5. That move rests largely on program standing. The WCC coaches picked San Francisco third in the league, and Chris Gerlufsen begins his fifth season as head coach.
Last season's final adjusted ratings point the same way. Those ratings measure points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents. San Francisco finished with a net mark of 5, ranked 117th nationally, while Radford sat at -8.6, ranked 259th. With so few players back, those figures say more about each program's level than about these particular players.
Who takes the shots now
Radford lost its two lead scorers to high-major programs. Dennis Parker Jr. averaged 18.2 points and left for Kansas, and Del Jones took his 17.2 points to Seton Hall. The new backcourt starts with Austin Peay transfer Ja'Corey Robinson, a point guard who averaged 6.6 points off the bench. Mercer transfer Tristan Gross shot 43.5% from three in a reserve role. Frederik Erichsen is the most experienced returner, a forward who averaged 5.6 points last season.
San Francisco's turnover is even steeper. Ryan Beasley left for Washington and Tyrone Riley IV for Oregon. The Dons added 14 new players, 11 of them freshmen. Oosterbaan is the most proven newcomer: a 6-6 junior who started all 34 games at St. Thomas-Minnesota and posted a 59.5% effective field goal percentage, a measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes.
The bigger wild card is Ndewedo Newbury. The forward missed all of last season with an injury but made the WCC preseason team. USF's Nov. 1 tip-off notes describe him as returning, though the school hasn't detailed how many minutes he'll play.
Pace clash, inflated total
Last season the two programs played at opposite speeds. Radford ranked 24th nationally in possessions per game, while San Francisco ranked 324th and liked to slow games down. Whichever coach imposes a tempo on these new rotations shapes the scoring.
The total has risen from 152.5 to 154, a small move that may reflect expectations of a faster tempo. Opening-night shooting from unfamiliar lineups can also swing a total in either direction quickly.
Turnovers and trips to the line
Last season's profiles offer one more lean, with heavy roster caveats. Radford's defense forced turnovers on 19.1% of possessions, 71st nationally. San Francisco forced them on just 15.1%, ranked 308th. If the Highlanders' new guards defend like last season's group, they can steal a few possessions back from a heavy favorite.
The free throw line favored the Dons. Radford drew fouls aggressively, with a free throw rate that ranked 55th, but San Francisco's defense held opponents to the 59th-lowest free throw rate in the country. If that discipline carries over, Radford loses one of its best ways to score.
What to watch
- Newbury's minutes in his first game in more than a year.
- Whether Oosterbaan becomes San Francisco's go-to scorer from the perimeter.
- Radford's tempo early. A fast first 10 minutes favors the over and keeps the underdog within reach.
- Radford's road schedule. The Highlanders play at California on Nov. 4, two days after this game.
Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons line movement and odds
| Book | Highlanders ML | Dons ML | Highlanders spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +700 | -1100 | +13.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +550 | -910 | +13.5 (-120) | o153.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +470 | -650 | +15.5 (-115) | o154.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +500 | -800 | +15.5 (-115) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +700 | -1100 | +13.5 (-105) | o154.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +680 | -1100 | +13.5 (-115) | o154.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +550 | -900 | +13.5 (-120) | o153.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +13.5 (-110) | o154.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons
On the Kalshi moneyline: Radford Highlanders: 77% of bets, 49% of the money; San Francisco Dons: 23% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Francisco Dons -13.5: 71% of bets, 83% of the money; Radford Highlanders +13.5: 29% of bets, 17% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 154.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons stats (this season)
| Stat | Radford Highlanders | San Francisco Dons |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 106.0 (220th of 365) | 113.9 (96th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 114.6 (280th of 365) | 108.9 (165th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -8.6 (259th of 365) | 5.0 (117th of 365) |
Key players
- Ben Oosterbaan (San Francisco): Started all 34 games last season and shot 36.8% from three.
- Ismaila Diagne (San Francisco): Averaged 0.6 blocks in just 6.9 minutes per game for Gonzaga last season.
- Ja'Corey Robinson (Radford): Averaged 6.6 points and 2.0 assists in 17.2 minutes last season.
- Tristan Gross (Radford): Shot 43.5% from three last season with a 126 offensive rating.
- Frederik Erichsen (Radford): Averaged 5.6 points off the bench last season with a 54.7% effective field goal percentage.
Numbers that matter
| USF returning minutes | 1.4% | San Francisco brings back almost none of last season's playing time. |
|---|---|---|
| Spread movement | -10 to -13.5 | The market has moved toward the Dons since our feed first recorded the line. |
| Radford pace rank, last season | 24th | San Francisco ranked 324th, so the opening tempo matters for a 154 total. |
| Radford forced turnover rate, last season | 19.1% | Ranked 71st nationally, while San Francisco's defense ranked 308th at forcing turnovers. |
Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons: quick answers
Who is favored in Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons?
San Francisco is favored by 13.5 points (San Francisco -13.5).
What is the over/under for Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons?
The total is 154.5 points.
When is Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons played?
The Sobrato Center, San Francisco, CA.
Has the line moved for Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons?
Yes: Radford Highlanders opened +10 and is now +13.5, and the total moved from 152.5 to 154.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Radford Highlanders vs San Francisco Dons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Radford Highlanders: 77% of bets, 49% of the money; San Francisco Dons: 23% of bets, 51% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San Francisco Dons -13.5: 71% of bets, 83% of the money; Radford Highlanders +13.5: 29% of bets, 17% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 154.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.