Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels prediction: Joshua Dent and a nearly new Saint Mary's open against Illinois State
Both programs turned over most of last season's minutes, so tonight's opener in Moraga tests how much of the Gaels' identity survived the exodus.
| Spread | Saint Mary's -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 148 |
- Expect Saint Mary's to lean on Joshua Dent and a deliberate half-court game, with Illinois State trying to drag the pace up behind rebuilt guards.
- Chase Walker against the Gaels' new frontcourt: last season he scored 13.7 points a game on a usage rate of 31.3%.
- Saint Mary's has slipped from -7 to -6.5 while the total climbed from 146.25 to 148, despite the Gaels ranking 364th in pace last season.
The Gaels start over
Saint Mary's went 27-6 last season with the fifth-best offense in the country by raw efficiency. Very little of that team is back. The Gaels return 26.7% of last season's minutes. Paulius Murauskas (18.4 points a game) and Dillan Shaw left for Arizona State, Mikey Lewis went to Texas and center Andrew McKeever went to Iowa.
What remains starts with Joshua Dent, who ran the offense for 36.2 minutes a night and hit 40.4% of his threes. Around him the program lists 10 newcomers plus redshirts Jazz Gardner and Trent MacLean, and freshman Bivins arrives as the highest-rated recruit in program history. Mickey McConnell is in his first season as head coach. The most useful transfer line belongs to Stanford import Jeremy Dent-Smith, who shot 37.7% from three last season on 154 attempts.
Illinois State reshuffles the backcourt
The Redbirds aren't much more settled. They bring back 34.0% of last season's minutes after losing four rotation guards, including Ty'Reek Coleman (to Iowa) and Ty Pence (to Akron). Ryan Pedon, opening his fifth season, does have three returning starters: Johnny Kinziger, Mason Klabo and Chase Walker.
Walker is the engine. His 31.3% usage rate last season means close to a third of Illinois State's possessions ended with him while he was on the floor, and he still posted an offensive rating of 114.7. Klabo is the shooter, at 38.4% from three. Xavier graduate transfer Malik Messina-Moore joins as a playmaker after averaging 3.8 assists last season, and he and sophomore Noah Cleveland made the Missouri Valley preseason Players to Watch list.
Last season's identity was defense and the defensive glass: Illinois State ranked 52nd in defensive efficiency and 19th in defensive rebound percentage, the share of opponent misses it collected.
A slow team and a rising total
Saint Mary's played at 61.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 364th of 365 teams. Illinois State sat at 66.8, a middle-of-the-pack 223rd. Fewer possessions usually mean fewer points, and the Gaels allowed just 64.5 a game, seventh nationally.
The market is pushing the other way. The total has moved from 146.25 when our feed first saw it to 148. That is a bet that a new coach and a new roster won't grind the way last year's team did. Nobody knows yet, and the first 10 minutes of tempo tonight will say a lot about how the Gaels plan to play this season.
Where the margin could come from
Last season's Gaels were elite on the boards at both ends, ranking 18th in offensive rebound percentage (37.2%) and sixth in defensive rebound percentage. That collides with an Illinois State defense that rarely gave up second chances. But McKeever's 9.1 rebounds a game are gone, and California Baptist transfer Thomas Ndong (6.5 a game last season) is the most proven rebounder in the new group.
The free-throw line is the other quiet edge. Saint Mary's shot 79.8% at the line last season, second in the country, and Dent made 91.8%. Illinois State shot 70.6%, 251st. In a game near the number, that gap shows up late.
The spread has drifted from -7 to -6.5, toward the Redbirds. Last season's adjusted ratings had Saint Mary's 23rd in net efficiency and Illinois State 89th, but with both rosters this new, those ratings describe teams that no longer exist.
Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels line movement and odds
| Book | Redbirds ML | Gaels ML | Redbirds spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +240 | -300 | — | o147.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +220 | -286 | +6.5 (-115) | o148.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +245 | -305 | +7.5 (-112) | o148.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +240 | -290 | +6.5 (-120) | o147.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +240 | -300 | +7 (-110) | o148 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +230 | -285 | +6.5 (-110) | o148.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +220 | -275 | +6.5 (-115) | o148.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels
On the Kalshi moneyline: Illinois St Redbirds: 43% of bets, 7% of the money; Saint Mary's Gaels: 57% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Saint Mary's Gaels -6.5: 45% of bets, 28% of the money; Illinois St Redbirds +6.5: 55% of bets, 72% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 148.5: 22% of bets, 10% of the money; Under 148.5: 78% of bets, 91% of the money.
Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels stats (this season)
| Stat | Illinois St Redbirds | Saint Mary's Gaels |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 111.3 (131st of 365) | 120.4 (41st of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 102.0 (59th of 365) | 96.1 (16th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 9.3 (89th of 365) | 24.3 (23rd of 365) |
Key players
- Joshua Dent (Saint Mary's): Played 36.2 minutes a game last season with 5.6 assists and 40.4% three-point shooting.
- Jeremy Dent-Smith (Saint Mary's): Hit 58 threes at 37.7% for Stanford last season with a 23.1% usage rate.
- Thomas Ndong (Saint Mary's): Averaged 6.5 rebounds in 17.5 minutes last season, the best board work among the newcomers.
- Chase Walker (Illinois State): Scored 13.7 points a game last season on 54.9% shooting with a 31.3% usage rate.
- Johnny Kinziger (Illinois State): Averaged 11.5 points and 3.3 assists in 32.3 minutes a game last season.
- Malik Messina-Moore (Illinois State): Started all 33 games at Xavier last season, averaging 10.9 points and 3.8 assists.
- Mason Klabo (Illinois State): Shot 38.4% from three last season with an offensive rating of 122.6.
Numbers that matter
| Saint Mary's returning minutes | 26.7% | The Gaels are rebuilding around Dent after losing four of last season's top contributors. |
|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's pace last season | 364th | The second-slowest team in the country, yet the total has climbed toward 148. |
| Total movement | 146.25 to 148 | The market expects more scoring than last season's Gaels typically allowed. |
| Saint Mary's free-throw percentage last season | 79.8% | Second nationally, against Illinois State's 70.6%, a gap that matters late in a close game. |
| Spread movement | -7 to -6.5 | A half-point drift toward Illinois State since our feed first recorded the line. |
Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels: quick answers
Who is favored in Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
Saint Mary's is favored by 6.5 points (Saint Mary's -6.5).
What is the over/under for Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
The total is 148 points.
When is Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels played?
University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA.
Has the line moved for Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
Yes: Illinois St Redbirds opened +8.5 and is now +6.5, and the total moved from 145 to 148.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Illinois St Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Illinois St Redbirds: 43% of bets, 7% of the money; Saint Mary's Gaels: 57% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Saint Mary's Gaels -6.5: 45% of bets, 28% of the money; Illinois St Redbirds +6.5: 55% of bets, 72% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 148.5: 22% of bets, 10% of the money; Under 148.5: 78% of bets, 91% of the money.