Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans prediction: Rodney Rice's return leads rebuilt No. 21 USC into Milwaukee opener
USC brings back less than a quarter of last season's minutes, and Rice's healthy shoulder is the clearest reason the Trojans are laying 26 points to a Milwaukee team that is rebuilding too.
| Spread | USC -26 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158.5 |
- USC's size and new guard depth should wear down a Milwaukee roster that is also starting over, with the Panthers' interior defense the weak point.
- Rodney Rice and the Trojans' transfer guards against Isaiah Dorceus and a Milwaukee backcourt that lost its two highest-usage scorers.
- USC -26 hasn't moved since our feed first saw it, while the total rose from 156 to 157.75.
Rice and a backcourt of strangers
USC opens at No. 21 in the AP preseason poll, Eric Musselman's highest ranking at the school, with a roster that needs name tags. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 24.0% of last season's minutes, and the most important of them barely played. Rodney Rice appeared in six games last season and averaged 20.3 points and 6.0 assists in them. He is back from shoulder surgery and set to run the offense.
He has company. Alijah Arenas returns after scoring 14.1 points a game, though his 21.3% three-point shooting shows how much of his game is still unfinished. The transfer class adds scoring: Jalen Cox averaged 17.9 points at Colgate, and Isaac Bruns put up 20.6 at South Dakota. KJ Lewis arrives from Georgetown, and Eric Reibe also joins as a transfer. A freshman class led by five-star forward Christian Collins and the Ratliff twins, Adonis and Darius, fills out a 14-man roster.
Musselman hasn't settled on a group. USC used two different starting lineups in exhibitions, including an 80-74 win at UC San Diego on Oct. 17, and no starting five for tonight has been announced. USC said Oct. 30 that every player cleared to play saw the floor during the exhibition slate.
Milwaukee rebuilds around Jovanovich
The Panthers went 12-20 last season and also start over, returning 28.7% of last season's minutes. Gone are Amar Augillard, who carried a 32.5% usage rate (the share of possessions he finished while on the floor), and Josh Dixon, now at Georgia Southern.
What Bart Lundy kept matters. Danilo Jovanovich averaged 12.4 points on a 61.4% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times) before a season-ending injury, and he made the preseason All-Horizon first team. Milwaukee hasn't publicly confirmed his health for this season. Chandler Jackson, also a preseason all-league pick, posted a 121.9 offensive rating last season, and point guard Isaiah Dorceus averaged 3.7 assists. The Horizon League preseason poll picked Milwaukee sixth. This is the opener of a West Coast swing and the first meeting between the programs.
The paint is the pressure point
Last season's numbers are a shaky guide with this much turnover, but one Milwaukee weakness is worth watching. The Panthers allowed opponents to make 55.9% of their two-point shots, 338th of 365 teams, and their adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) ranked 292nd.
USC should have the bodies to test that. Its minutes-weighted average height sits at 78.5 inches against Milwaukee's 76.7. Jacob Cofie, the returning anchor of a USC defense whose block rate ranked seventh nationally last season, swatted 1.8 shots a game. If Jovanovich and Jackson can't score over Cofie and USC's new length, Milwaukee's offense will have to come from the perimeter, where last season's team made just 32.3% of its threes.
Twenty-six points and a rising total
USC is a 26-point favorite, the same number our feed recorded when it first saw the game on Nov. 1. The total has climbed from 156 to 157.75, a sign the market expects both of these rebuilt defenses to give up points in the opener.
Last season's end-of-year adjusted ratings were further apart than the records suggest. USC finished 82nd in adjusted net efficiency at 10.8 points per 100 possessions, Milwaukee 256th at -8.2. Those figures describe teams that largely no longer exist. The spread is pricing in Rice's return and the transfer haul instead, so a cover depends on how quickly USC's new guards learn to share one ball.
Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans line movement and odds
| Book | Panthers ML | Trojans ML | Panthers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +26.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +26.5 (-107) | o160.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +3500 | -20000 | +26.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +26.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +2800 | -9000 | +26.5 (-110) | o161 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +4000 | -30000 | +25.5 (-104) | o160.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +26.5 (-105) | o160.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +26.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans
On the Kalshi moneyline: Milwaukee Panthers: 77% of bets, 3% of the money; USC Trojans: 23% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: USC Trojans -26.5: 54% of bets, 60% of the money; Milwaukee Panthers +26.5: 46% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 158.5: 94% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 158.5: 6% of bets, 1% of the money.
Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans stats (this season)
| Stat | Milwaukee Panthers | USC Trojans |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 107.2 (206th of 365) | 113.8 (97th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 115.4 (292nd of 365) | 103.0 (70th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -8.2 (256th of 365) | 10.8 (82nd of 365) |
Key players
- Rodney Rice (USC): Averaged 20.3 points and 6.0 assists in six games last season.
- Jacob Cofie (USC): Started all 32 games last season and blocked 1.8 shots per game.
- Jalen Cox (USC): Scored 17.9 points a game at Colgate last season with a 120.4 offensive rating.
- Alijah Arenas (USC): Averaged 14.1 points last season but shot 21.3% from three.
- Danilo Jovanovich (Milwaukee): Averaged 12.4 points on a 61.4% effective field goal percentage last season before a season-ending injury.
- Chandler Jackson (Milwaukee): Posted a 121.9 offensive rating while scoring 9.7 points per game last season.
- Isaiah Dorceus (Milwaukee): Handed out 3.7 assists per game last season in 22.2 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| USC returning minutes | 24.0% | Players on USC's roster played less than a quarter of last season's minutes, so last season's team stats say little. |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee opponent 2-point % | 55.9% | Last season's Panthers ranked 338th in defending twos, a target for USC's bigger lineup. |
| USC block rate (last season) | 15.3% | Ranked seventh nationally last season, and Cofie returns as the top shot-blocker. |
| Spread | -26 | USC's number has not moved since our feed first recorded it on Nov. 1. |
| Total | 157.75 | Up from 156 when first seen, as two rebuilt defenses open their seasons. |
Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans: quick answers
Who is favored in Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans?
USC is favored by 26 points (USC -26).
What is the over/under for Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans?
The total is 158.5 points.
When is Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET.
Where is Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans played?
Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA.
Has the line moved for Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans?
Yes: Milwaukee Panthers opened +27.5 and is now +26.5, and the total moved from 156 to 160.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Milwaukee Panthers vs USC Trojans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Milwaukee Panthers: 77% of bets, 3% of the money; USC Trojans: 23% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: USC Trojans -26.5: 54% of bets, 60% of the money; Milwaukee Panthers +26.5: 46% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 158.5: 94% of bets, 99% of the money; Under 158.5: 6% of bets, 1% of the money.