East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils prediction: Randy Bennett's rebuilt Arizona State debuts with size against reloaded ETSU
Both rosters were remade in the portal, but only one has Ben Defty, and the 17.5-point line is betting that size and Paulius Murauskas travel.
| Spread | Arizona State -19 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 145.25 |
- Arizona State's bigger, portal-built lineup should own the paint while ETSU's new guards try to generate steals and threes to stay attached.
- Ben Defty against ETSU's interior, which lost forwards Blake Barkley and Cam Morris III from last season's SoCon regular-season champions.
- Arizona State is -17.5 with a total of 146, both unchanged since Nov. 1; ASU returns just 9.2% of last season's minutes.
A new coach, a new roster
Arizona State opens the Randy Bennett era tonight with almost nothing left from Bobby Hurley's final season. Players on this roster logged just 9.2% of the Sun Devils' minutes last season, and the lone notable returner, guard Bryce Ford, is coming back from hip surgery. Last season's team went 17-16 and ranked 266th of 365 in net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions). Those numbers describe a team that no longer exists.
The new one came from the portal. In the final exhibition, at New Mexico, Bennett started Defty, Paulius Murauskas, Emmanuel Innocenti, Dillan Shaw and Joel Foxwell. Murauskas is the headliner: he averaged 18.4 points at Saint Mary's last season with an offensive rating of 125.1. Foxwell is locked in at point guard after running Portland's offense at a 25.9% usage rate. He also handed out 6.5 assists per game there.
Defty and the size gap
The clearest edge is height. Arizona State's minutes-weighted average height is 78.2 inches, against 75.8 for ETSU. Defty is why that matters. He shot 69.4% from the floor at Boston University last season and blocked 1.8 shots a game.
ETSU did its best work inside last season, hitting 57.8% of its twos, 28th nationally. But Barkley, who left for Grand Canyon, and Morris are gone. Jordan McCullum is back as a starting forward, yet his 21.4% three-point shooting means he does his scoring near the rim. That is exactly where Defty lives.
ETSU's guards and the steals
The Bucs turned over their roster too, though less completely: 24.4% of last season's minutes return. Maki Johnson, the top returner, shot 36.4% from three in a reserve role and is expected to start alongside UT Arlington transfer Tyran Mason. BJ Ward from Southeast Missouri State and Jayden Cooper from South Alabama were full-time starters at their old schools, and Ward averaged 3.7 assists.
Last season's ETSU defense lived on pressure, ranking 16th in steal rate. If this backcourt can rattle Foxwell, a new point guard in his first real game for a new coach, it is the Bucs' best path to a manageable margin. The flip side: last season's ETSU defense let opponents shoot a lot of threes, and Shaw hit 41.6% from deep at Saint Mary's.
Who is available
Ford was still listed as questionable with the hip on an Oct. 30 injury report, so his return for the opener isn't confirmed. Arizona State's eligibility for Jonathan Griman, a 6-11 senior forward from Cal Baptist, was still pending as of about Nov. 1. Bennett hasn't said who plays the five against ETSU, although Defty started there in the final exhibition. ETSU had no injuries listed as of Oct. 30.
Where the number sits
Arizona State is favored by 17.5, and neither the spread nor the total of 146 has moved since our feed first saw the game on Nov. 1. Last season's final adjusted ratings had ASU 75th and ETSU 145th, a gap that understates neither side's reality because both rosters changed so much. Treat those ratings as background, not a guide.
The tempo picture is similarly hazy. Last season ASU played fast, 61st in pace, while ETSU sat 233rd. With two new rotations, a new coach and opening-night nerves, the total rests more on how quickly Foxwell pushes than on anything either program did a year ago.
East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils line movement and odds
| Book | Buccaneers ML | Devils ML | Buccaneers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1300 | -3000 | — | o145.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +1400 | -10000 | +19.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +1700 | -4500 | +19.5 (-112) | o145.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +2000 | -7500 | +19.5 (-120) | o145.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +1800 | -4000 | +19.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | +1600 | -4500 | +19.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-114) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1400 | -5000 | +19.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +19.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils
On the Kalshi moneyline: East Tennessee St Buccaneers: 64% of bets, 7% of the money; Arizona St Sun Devils: 36% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona St Sun Devils -17.5: 77% of bets, 92% of the money; East Tennessee St Buccaneers +17.5: 23% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 65% of bets, 18% of the money; Under 145.5: 35% of bets, 82% of the money.
East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils stats (this season)
| Stat | East Tennessee St Buccaneers | Arizona St Sun Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 110.2 (151st of 365) | 114.8 (83rd of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 108.3 (154th of 365) | 103.4 (72nd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 2.0 (145th of 365) | 11.4 (75th of 365) |
Key players
- Paulius Murauskas (Arizona State): Averaged 18.4 points and 7.5 rebounds at Saint Mary's last season.
- Ben Defty (Arizona State): Shot 69.4% from the floor with 1.8 blocks per game at Boston University last season.
- Joel Foxwell (Arizona State): Posted 15.6 points and 6.5 assists per game at Portland last season.
- Dillan Shaw (Arizona State): Made 41.6% of his threes at Saint Mary's last season.
- Maki Johnson (East Tennessee State): Shot 36.4% from three in 22.3 minutes per game last season.
- Jordan McCullum (East Tennessee State): Averaged 8.2 points on 52.4% shooting last season.
- BJ Ward (East Tennessee State): Averaged 10.9 points and 3.7 assists at Southeast Missouri State last season.
- Tyran Mason (East Tennessee State): Scored 6.5 points per game off the bench at UT Arlington last season.
Numbers that matter
| Spread | -17.5 | Arizona State's line, unchanged since our feed first saw the game on Nov. 1. |
|---|---|---|
| ASU returning minutes | 9.2% | Last season's numbers say almost nothing about this Sun Devils roster. |
| ASU average height | 78.2 | Minutes-weighted inches, against 75.8 for ETSU. |
| Defty FG% | 69.4% | His efficiency at Boston University last season is ASU's interior anchor. |
| ETSU steal rate rank, last season | 16th | Pressure is the Bucs' clearest route to keeping the margin down. |
East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils: quick answers
Who is favored in East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
Arizona State is favored by 19 points (Arizona State -19).
What is the over/under for East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
The total is 145.25 points.
When is East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils played?
Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ.
Has the line moved for East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
No: East Tennessee St Buccaneers has stayed at +19.5, and the total moved from 146.5 to 145.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Arizona St Sun Devils?
On the Kalshi moneyline: East Tennessee St Buccaneers: 64% of bets, 7% of the money; Arizona St Sun Devils: 36% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arizona St Sun Devils -17.5: 77% of bets, 92% of the money; East Tennessee St Buccaneers +17.5: 23% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 65% of bets, 18% of the money; Under 145.5: 35% of bets, 82% of the money.