Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals prediction: Winthrop brings back almost nothing; Queens brings back its core
In a 9 a.m. rivalry opener, Queens' returning scorers and Winthrop's freshly assembled transfer roster both carry last season's habits, including a Queens defense that couldn't stop anyone.
| Spread | Queens University -2 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 167.5 |
- Expect a fast, high-scoring opener where Queens' returning core gives it early cohesion against a Winthrop roster built almost entirely from transfers.
- Queens forward Avantae Parker inside against Winthrop's rebuilt frontcourt, led by North Dakota transfer George Natsvlishvili.
- Queens is favored by 2, up from 1.5 when our feed first saw it; Winthrop returns just 11.1% of last season's minutes.
Winthrop starts from scratch
Winthrop has owned this local rivalry, winning all three meetings over the last three seasons, including an 81-74 result on a neutral floor in last year's opener. The team that did most of that winning is gone. Players on this season's roster logged only 11.1% of Winthrop's minutes last season.
The departures cut deep. Center Logan Duncomb, who averaged 18.2 points, is at Notre Dame. Guard Kody Clouet posted an offensive rating of 136.4 (points produced per 100 possessions used) and is also gone, along with fellow starter Kareem Rozier. Mark Prosser, who shared Big South Coach of the Year honors last season, now has to rebuild on the fly.
The replacements come mostly through the portal. Spence Sims hit 43% of his threes at Gardner-Webb, and Micah Davis ran point minutes at IU Indianapolis. Up front, Natsvlishvili and junior college addition Eesher Singh Sarai inherit Duncomb's role. Queens, by contrast, brings back 40.0% of its minutes, and the players returning are the ones who carried the ball.
Queens scores, but can it defend
Queens won its first ASUN tournament title last season behind one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Royals scored 119.6 points per 100 possessions, 39th of 365, and made 59.1% of their twos, 15th nationally. Parker was the finisher, shooting 67.4% from the floor, while Jordan Watford ran the offense with 3.9 assists per game.
The other end was a problem. Queens allowed 118.0 points per 100 possessions, 351st in Division I, and opponents shot 36.1% from three against it. Grant Leonard, who signed an extension after that run, lost shooters too: Chris Ashby (111 made threes), Carson Schwieger (now at Tulane) and Maban Jabriel (now at Maryland). Citadel transfer Dante Kearse and Division II addition Corbin Pack, a 40% three-point shooter at Wingate, are meant to fill that spacing.
If the defense hasn't changed, a Winthrop team still learning itself may find the scoring it needs anyway.
Second chances and free throws
The clearest edge in last season's profiles is on the glass. Winthrop grabbed 35.5% of its own misses, 44th nationally, while Queens corralled only 66.3% of opponents' misses, 328th. Winthrop also lived at the line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) that ranked 15th, against a Queens defense that ranked 278th at keeping opponents off the line.
The caveat is that Duncomb drove much of that interior work. Whether Natsvlishvili, who posted a 113.4 offensive rating at North Dakota, and Singh Sarai can keep the Eagles crashing is the open question of the morning. If they can, Queens' rebounding weakness gives Winthrop extra possessions to cover early-season sloppiness.
What the market is pricing
Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, opponent-adjusted) favored Winthrop: 153rd in net efficiency to Queens' 203rd. The market sides with continuity instead. Queens is a 2-point favorite across nine books, up from 1.5, and the total has climbed to 167.5 from 165.5.
That total reflects two teams that pushed tempo last season, with Winthrop 17th in pace and Queens 64th, plus a Queens defense that gave up 83.5 points per game. Queens listed no injuries as of Oct. 30, and nothing has surfaced on Winthrop's availability.
- Winthrop's offensive rebounding against Queens' defensive glass
- Sims' shooting volume in his first game as a featured scorer
- Parker's touches against a frontcourt playing together for the first time
Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals line movement and odds
| Book | Eagles ML | Royals ML | Eagles spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 | +1.5 (-110) | o167.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +108 | -139 | +2.5 (-124) | o168.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 | +1.5 (-115) | o167.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-115) | o166.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 | +1.5 (-115) | o167.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +104 | -125 | +1.5 (-110) | o167.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -135 | +2.5 (-125) | o168.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 | +1.5 (-110) | o167.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals
On the Kalshi moneyline: Winthrop Eagles: 41% of bets, 29% of the money; Queens University Royals: 59% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Queens University Royals -1.5: 72% of bets, 67% of the money; Winthrop Eagles +1.5: 28% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 167.5: 49% of bets, 42% of the money; Under 167.5: 51% of bets, 58% of the money.
Key players
- Spence Sims (Winthrop): Made 71 of 165 threes at Gardner-Webb last season, a 43% clip that makes him Winthrop's likeliest new shooter.
- George Natsvlishvili (Winthrop): Averaged 8.0 points and 4.9 rebounds at North Dakota last season with a 113.4 offensive rating.
- Micah Davis (Winthrop): Played 25.4 minutes a game at IU Indianapolis last season, averaging 9.4 points and 2.9 assists.
- Seifeldin Hendawy (Winthrop): The most experienced holdover, he played 16.5 minutes a game last season but shot 20% from three.
- Nasir Mann (Queens University): Started all 35 games last season and averaged 13.3 points and 5.7 rebounds.
- Avantae Parker (Queens University): Shot 67.4% from the floor last season and added 1.3 blocks per game.
- Jordan Watford (Queens University): Led the returners with a 130.5 offensive rating last season while averaging 11.8 points and 3.9 assists.
- Dante Kearse (Queens University): Hit 41.5% of his threes at The Citadel last season in a reserve role.
Numbers that matter
| Winthrop returning minutes | 11.1% | Almost all of last season's 23-11 team is gone, so Winthrop's old numbers say little. |
|---|---|---|
| Queens defensive efficiency rank, last season | 351st | Queens allowed 118.0 points per 100 possessions, an opening for any offense, even a new one. |
| Winthrop offensive rebound rate, last season | 35.5% | Ranked 44th against a Queens defensive glass that ranked 328th, if the new frontcourt keeps crashing. |
| Spread | -2 | Queens moved from a 1.5-point favorite, despite trailing Winthrop in last season's adjusted ratings. |
| Total | 167.5 | Up from 165.5, reflecting two up-tempo teams and Queens' porous defense. |
Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals: quick answers
Who is favored in Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals?
Queens University is favored by 2 points (Queens University -2).
What is the over/under for Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals?
The total is 167.5 points.
When is Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET.
Has the line moved for Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals?
Yes: Winthrop Eagles opened +2 and is now +1.5, and the total moved from 165.5 to 167.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Winthrop Eagles vs Queens University Royals?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Winthrop Eagles: 41% of bets, 29% of the money; Queens University Royals: 59% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Queens University Royals -1.5: 72% of bets, 67% of the money; Winthrop Eagles +1.5: 28% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 167.5: 49% of bets, 42% of the money; Under 167.5: 51% of bets, 58% of the money.