Willamette vs Portland prediction: Portland opens against Division III Willamette with last season's shooting woes to fix
The result is not the question at the Chiles Center; whether the Pilots can clean up last season's turnovers and cold shooting is.
- Portland, a WCC program, should control a Division III visitor from the start; how cleanly it does so is the real test.
- Portland's ball security: the Pilots ranked 334th in turnover rate last season.
- No spread or total has been posted yet; for context, Portland finished last season 216th in adjusted net efficiency.
A season opener across divisions
Shantay Legans begins his sixth season at Portland by hosting Willamette, a Division III program from the Northwest Conference, on Monday, Nov. 2. The Bearcats' most recent game on record was a loss in the NWC championship game on Feb. 28, when Devis Hester scored a career-high 27 points. Michael Lenahan coached them last season, and his status for this season hasn't been confirmed.
The gap in level is wide. The useful questions are about Portland, which went 15-19 last season.
What last season's Pilots fixed and didn't
Portland finished last season 230th in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and 198th on defence. Those numbers describe last season's roster, and with freshmen such as Carlin Briggs and Dante Censori-Hercules now listed, they are only a loose guide.
The offence had one real strength. The Pilots hit 55.3% of their twos, 64th nationally, and ranked 19th in assist rate, the share of made baskets that came off a pass. The weak spots were just as clear. They made 30.2% of their threes, 345th of 365, and turned the ball over on 19.5% of possessions.
Those last two numbers are the ones to watch against an overmatched opponent. A cleaner opener would be a better early sign than a large margin.
Perimeter defence and pace
Last season's Portland defence let opponents take plenty of threes: 46.4% of their shots came from deep, the 18th-highest rate in the country. Opponents made 36.1% of them. Watch whether a Division III team can find the same open looks.
The Pilots also played at a brisk 69.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 80th nationally. That pace, combined with the talent gap, points to a game Portland can stretch.
Where the money is on Willamette vs Portland
On the Kalshi moneyline: Willamette: 77% of bets, 1% of the money; Portland: 23% of bets, 99% of the money.
Numbers that matter
| Portland 3-point % (last season) | 30.2% | It ranked 345th of 365, the clearest shooting flaw the Pilots carry into this season. |
|---|---|---|
| Portland turnover rate (last season) | 19.5% | It ranked 334th, so ball security is worth watching even against a Division III opponent. |
| Opponent 3-point attempt rate (last season) | 46.4% | Portland allowed the 18th-highest rate of opponent threes in Division I. |
| Portland adjusted net efficiency (last season) | -4.5 | It ranked 216th of 365, a middling WCC baseline before roster changes. |
Willamette vs Portland: quick answers
When is Willamette vs Portland?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is the money on Willamette vs Portland?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Willamette: 77% of bets, 1% of the money; Portland: 23% of bets, 99% of the money.