Western Michigan Broncos vs Old Dominion Monarchs prediction: Kahil Fennell's new-look Broncos bring a perimeter defense problem to Norfolk

A new coach inherits old holes

Western Michigan fired Dwayne Stephens after four seasons and hired Kahil Fennell from UTRGV in March. The 2026-27 season is his first in charge of a program that went 10-21 last season. He also inherits that team's defense, which finished 316th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).

This isn't a full teardown. Players on the current roster logged 65.1% of last season's minutes. The headliner is Justice Williams, who averaged 15.1 points and made 36.4% of his threes. Jayden Brewer added 13.3 points a night with the team's heaviest usage. The losses still hurt the perimeter. Jalen Griffith, a 41.6% three-point shooter, is now at Eastern Washington, and Trey Lewis left for Ball State.

The Broncos' roster page lists eight incoming transfers, though that has not been confirmed elsewhere. Two of them, Jaylen Washington and Julien Gomez, come from Fennell's old program at UTRGV.

The three-point fault line

Last season's tape on Western Michigan's defense was simple: opponents hunted threes and hit them. The Broncos allowed a 3-point attempt rate of 43.8%, 49th-highest in the country. Opponents made 35.6% of those looks, which ranked 304th.

That matters against an Old Dominion team that shot 35.4% from deep last season, 97th nationally. The Monarchs struggled inside, ranking 294th in 2-point percentage. A defense that gives up the perimeter plays straight into Old Dominion's best shot.

Whether Fennell's rebuilt rotation closes out better is the biggest unknown in this game. Last season's numbers describe a different coach's scheme.

Possessions and the free-throw line

Western Michigan barely took the ball away last season. Its forced turnover rate (opponent turnovers per 100 possessions) of 14.3% ranked 339th. Old Dominion protected the ball well, with a 15.4% turnover rate that ranked 87th. Unless the new staff changes that, the Monarchs should get plenty of clean possessions.

The edge flips on the glass and at the line. Old Dominion grabbed only 26.6% of its own misses, 329th nationally, and Western Michigan was sturdy on the defensive boards. The Monarchs also fouled a lot. Their opponent free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) of 41.6% ranked 330th. That gives the Broncos a path to points: they made 74.2% of their free throws last season, and EJ Ryans hit 89.1%.

Tempo, setting and the unknowns

Both teams played a bit faster than average last season. Old Dominion ranked 64th in pace and Western Michigan 105th, so expect a game with a normal-to-brisk number of possessions.

Mike Jones begins his third season with the Monarchs, who went 12-21 last year. "We are ready to work," Jones said in August. The official Old Dominion roster does not list Jordan Battle or Robert Davis Jr., and the program hasn't confirmed whether either is gone. No injury or eligibility news on either team had surfaced as of Oct. 14.

Old Dominion's schedule lists a 7 p.m. tip, while other listings still show the time as TBA. No betting line has been posted.