Weber State Wildcats vs Oregon St Beavers prediction: Oregon State's transfer haul debuts against a Weber State built anew

Two teams starting over

Tonight's opener at Gill Coliseum (9:30 p.m. ET) features two programs that kept almost nothing from last season. Weber State returns 9.2% of last season's minutes under first-year coach Kaleb Canales, who replaced Eric Duft in April. Oregon State returns 16.8% under Justin Joyner, who spent two seasons as a Michigan assistant before replacing Wayne Tinkle after 12 seasons. Senior guard Josiah Lake II is the only Beaver back.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. By last season's adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), the two finished close together: Oregon State 176th, Weber State 194th. Yet the market has Oregon State as a 17.5-point favorite. The gap comes from the rosters and the home floor, not from last season's results. The last meeting, in November 2024, went to Oregon State 76-48 in Corvallis.

Who carries Oregon State

Joyner's roster is built on transfers who started elsewhere. Freitag averaged 19.8 points at Buffalo last season with a 29.3% usage rate, the share of possessions he finished. Fresno State's DeShawn Gory and Idaho's Jackson Rasmussen both started every game last season. Rasmussen spent last season in the Big Sky, so he knows Weber State's league. Legend Smiley adds shooting after making 42% of his threes at San Francisco.

Lake is the connective piece. He started all 33 games last season and shot 38.1% from three. Two availability notes are unsettled. San Francisco transfer Sean Blakely Drummond sat out an exhibition in August with an undisclosed injury, but an Oct. 30 injury report listed no Oregon State injuries. BYU transfer Staton has reportedly recovered from the injury that ended his season early. Oregon State hasn't announced a starting lineup.

Weber State's missing scorers

The Wildcats lost the two players who drove their offense. Tijan Saine Jr. averaged 17.5 points last season and left for Florida International. Viljami Vartiainen made 42.2% of his threes and left for UC Santa Barbara. The Big Sky media poll picked Weber State eighth.

The top returner is ArDarius Grayson, who averaged 3.8 points off the bench last season. He sat out the Oct. 24 exhibition against Westminster for team rules, and freshman Gavin Lowe started at point guard instead. In that same game, a player named Jackson iced a knee. Canales said he was waiting on the training staff, and no update has followed. In the Oct. 28 exhibition win over Colorado Mesa, Dylan Warlick led four double-digit scorers with 18 points. That is the clearest sign yet of who might carry this group.

Tempo and the free-throw line

Last season's team styles offer one hint, though the players behind them are mostly gone. Oregon State played at 65.9 possessions per 40 minutes, 275th in the country, and got to the line often. Its free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) was 43.1%, 16th in Division I, and it made 77.2% of its free throws. Weber State played faster, at 70.1 possessions, 70th.

Neither profile transfers neatly to these rosters. Still, a home team stocked with guards who can draw fouls, such as Freitag, who shot 82.7% from the line at Buffalo, fits a game that slows down and turns into free throws.

What the market is saying

The spread opened at Oregon State -17.5 when our feed first saw the game and hasn't moved across the eight books quoting it. The total has moved. It went up from 154.5 to 159.0. That is a lot of scoring to expect from teams that have never played a regular-season game together, and from an Oregon State program that ranked 286th in points per game last season.

• Watch whether Weber State's backcourt holds up against Oregon State's guards early. A freshman at point guard on the road is a concern for the underdog.
• Watch the pace. A fast first half would support the higher total, while a game played in the half court favors the under.