Virginia-Lynchburg vs VMI prediction: VMI's returning shooters get a tune-up before the SMU trip
With most of last season's minutes back, the Keydets' opener against Virginia-Lynchburg is a first look at whether a 6-26 team's three-point machine has improved.
- VMI should control this from early on; the open questions are its shooting rhythm and who runs the offence after a starting guard left.
- Watch TJ Johnson's volume from deep, after he took 310 threes last season and made 35.5%.
- No spread or total is posted yet; the last meeting, a 106-54 VMI win in November 2025, is the only reference point.
The same team, a year older
VMI finished 6-26 last season, and almost everyone who played is back. Players on this season's roster accounted for 84.9% of last season's minutes, so last year's numbers are a reasonable guide to who the Keydets are. That is a mixed message. The offence was built around the three: VMI took 54.0% of its shots from deep, second-most in Division I. The defence was the problem, allowing 116.5 points per 100 possessions (341st of 365).
Virginia-Lynchburg is not a Division I program we hold data for. The schools met in November 2025, and VMI won 106-54 at Cameron Hall.
Johnson and Holmstrom set the tone
TJ Johnson is the engine. He averaged 18.3 points and played nearly the whole game, logging 35.6 minutes a night. Linus Holmstrom was the sharper shooter, hitting 39.4% of his threes. A soft opener is a chance for both to find a rhythm before the schedule turns.
The one notable departure is at point guard. Tan Yildizoglu, who averaged 4.6 assists while starting every game, is now at Siena. VMI took good care of the ball last season, with a turnover rate of 14.7 per 100 possessions (43rd nationally). Holding that without its primary passer is worth tracking. VMI hasn't announced any transfers coming in.
Rickey Bradley Jr., who was with VMI last season and sat out the regular-season finale, was the coaches' preseason player of the year pick. VMI was picked ninth in the SoCon coaches' poll.
Opening night, then a road swing
This is VMI's season opener. Right after it, the Keydets travel to SMU and UTSA from November 5-7, so Andrew Wilson may spread minutes around. Tyler Pierce, who joined from Carthage College in late September, makes his debut on the bench.
The schedule grid lists a 6:00 PM ET tip. An August release listed 1 p.m., so check the time before tip-off. No injury news had surfaced for either team as of Oct. 14.
Key players
- TJ Johnson (VMI): Averaged 18.3 points last season and made 110 threes.
- Linus Holmstrom (VMI): Shot 39.4% from three last season with a 58 effective field goal percentage.
- Mario Tatum Jr. (VMI): Played 25.9 minutes a game last season but made only 27.3% of his threes.
- Cal Liston (VMI): Started 24 games last season and averaged 5.3 points.
Numbers that matter
| Returning minutes | 84.9% | Nearly all of last season's rotation is back, so last year's profile should carry over. |
|---|---|---|
| 3-point attempt rate, last season | 2nd | VMI took 54.0% of its shots from deep, second-most in Division I. |
| Defensive efficiency rank, last season | 341st | VMI allowed 116.5 points per 100 possessions, the weakness behind a 6-26 record. |
| Last meeting | 106-54 | VMI routed Virginia-Lynchburg at Cameron Hall in November 2025. |
Virginia-Lynchburg vs VMI: quick answers
When is Virginia-Lynchburg vs VMI?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.