UTSA Roadrunners vs San José St Spartans prediction: Acting coach, new roster: UTSA's unsettled opener at San José State
Both programs rebuilt almost from scratch, but only UTSA arrives without its head coach, and the market has edged toward the Spartans.
| Spread | San José State -8 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 155.5 |
- Two nearly new rosters feel each other out; San José State's deeper transfer haul and home floor give it the steadier footing.
- Watch Joey Chammaa and Mekhi Mason against UTSA's all-guard newcomer group, led by Ohio transfer JJ Kelly.
- San José State is -8, up from -7.5; UTSA returns just 13.1% of last season's minutes and plays under an acting coach.
A season opens in turmoil
Most season openers are about who the new guys are. UTSA's is also about who isn't on the bench. Head coach Austin Claunch was arrested Oct. 28 on suspicion of DWI, and the school suspended him from the team. Assistant Nick Bowman takes over as acting head coach and leads the Roadrunners in this afternoon's 3 p.m. ET tip in San José.
That would be a hard enough week for a settled team. UTSA is anything but. The Roadrunners return 13.1% of last season's minutes, and sophomore Dorian Hayes is the only returning player. Bowman is coaching a largely new group in a road gym, days after the head coach's suspension.
San José State is rebuilt too, returning only 8.2% of its minutes. The difference is continuity at the top: Tim Miles enters his sixth season, and the Spartans, picked seventh in the Mountain West, open with a home crowd and a stable staff.
Spartans built on efficient transfers
Miles went shopping for scorers who don't waste possessions. Joey Chammaa averaged 9.9 points in under 17 minutes a game at Arkansas State last season, with an offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions) of 127.4. Wake Forest transfer Mekhi Mason made 46 threes there, and San Francisco transfer Mookie Cook shot 39.7% from deep.
Up front, Zine Eddine Bedri averaged 12.8 points and 7.4 rebounds at Columbia, though in only five games. Robert Vaihola, also in five games at Minnesota, made 70% of his shots. The roster page also lists Tulsa transfer KJ Martin Jr.
The lone returner of note is guard Pasha Goodarzi, who shot 40.7% from three and 93.1% at the line last season, the kind of free-throw shooter a team wants holding the ball late.
UTSA's guard-heavy rebuild
Every UTSA transfer in our data is a guard, and the best of them were efficient in smaller roles. JJ Kelly posted a 58% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) at Ohio. Preston Turner shot 44.8% from three at Eastern Illinois. Demari Williams carried the biggest load of the group at Houston Christian, using 23.1% of his team's possessions.
Hayes is the bridge to last season. He played 30.2 minutes a game but shot just 33.8% from the field, and he will likely share the ball with players he has known only since summer. The two rosters grade out nearly even in minutes-weighted height, so this is less a size mismatch than a question of which set of newcomers finds rhythm first.
Last season's numbers, held loosely
With so little returning, last season's team stats describe programs more than these rosters. Still, they frame the starting point. UTSA finished last season 339th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents); San José State finished 235th.
The Spartans' problem was defense. Opponents made 58.2% of their twos against them, 361st of 365. UTSA's was offense: it shot 29.7% from three, 353rd nationally. Those were different players, but they explain why the market still treats San José State as the stronger program. Last season's styles clashed, too, with UTSA playing fast (73rd in pace) and the Spartans 301st, though new rotations make that a weak guide to today's tempo.
What the market is saying
San José State is an 8-point favorite across 10 books, up from 7.5 when our feed first saw the line, with the move toward the Spartans. The moneyline sits at -380 for the home side and +290 for UTSA.
The total has barely budged, at 153.25 after opening in our feed at 153.5. That is a high number for two teams whose identities are unknown, and it leans on both defenses being as porous as last season's units were.
- Whether Bowman's rotation looks organized in the first 10 minutes
- Chammaa's scoring efficiency in a bigger role
- Turner's and Kelly's outside shooting as UTSA's best counterpunch
UTSA Roadrunners vs San José St Spartans line movement and odds
| Book | Roadrunners ML | Spartans ML | Roadrunners spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +280 | -350 | +8.5 (-118) | o155.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +275 | -375 | +7.5 (-108) | o155.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +285 | -360 | +7.5 (-108) | o155.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +290 | -380 | +7.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +290 | -375 | +8 (-105) | o155.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +315 | -410 | +8.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +275 | -375 | +7.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on UTSA Roadrunners vs San José St Spartans
On the Kalshi moneyline: UTSA Roadrunners: 39% of bets, 19% of the money; San José St Spartans: 61% of bets, 81% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San José St Spartans -7.5: 64% of bets, 85% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners +7.5: 36% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 155.5: 49% of bets, 67% of the money; Under 155.5: 51% of bets, 34% of the money.
Key players
- Dorian Hayes (UTSA): Played 30.2 minutes a game last season and shot 33.3% from three, the only UTSA player back from that roster.
- JJ Kelly (UTSA): Posted a 58% effective field goal percentage and a 116.8 offensive rating at Ohio last season.
- Preston Turner (UTSA): Made 44.8% of his threes at Eastern Illinois last season on 96 attempts.
- Demari Williams (UTSA): Averaged 9.7 points at Houston Christian last season with a 23.1% usage rate.
- Joey Chammaa (San José State): Scored 9.9 points in 16.9 minutes a game at Arkansas State last season with a 127.4 offensive rating.
- Zine Eddine Bedri (San José State): Averaged 12.8 points and 7.4 rebounds at Columbia last season, though in only five games.
- Mekhi Mason (San José State): Made 46 threes at Wake Forest last season while starting 12 games.
- Pasha Goodarzi (San José State): Shot 40.7% from three and 93.1% from the line for the Spartans last season.
Numbers that matter
| UTSA returning minutes | 13.1% | Only Dorian Hayes is back, and he plays for an acting coach after Austin Claunch's suspension. |
|---|---|---|
| SJSU returning minutes | 8.2% | The Spartans are just as new on the floor, but Tim Miles provides continuity on the bench. |
| Spread | -8 | San José State's number has moved from -7.5 toward the home side. |
| Total | 153.25 | Nearly unchanged from 153.5, a high mark for two unproven rosters. |
| SJSU opponent 2-point % last season | 58.2% | Ranked 361st of 365, the defensive flaw this rebuild was meant to fix. |
UTSA Roadrunners vs San José St Spartans: quick answers
Who is favored in UTSA Roadrunners vs San José St Spartans?
San José State is favored by 8 points (San José State -8).
What is the over/under for UTSA Roadrunners vs San José St Spartans?
The total is 155.5 points.
When is UTSA Roadrunners vs San José St Spartans?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for UTSA Roadrunners vs San José St Spartans?
No: UTSA Roadrunners has stayed at +7.5, and the total moved from 153.5 to 155.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UTSA Roadrunners vs San José St Spartans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UTSA Roadrunners: 39% of bets, 19% of the money; San José St Spartans: 61% of bets, 81% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: San José St Spartans -7.5: 64% of bets, 85% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners +7.5: 36% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 155.5: 49% of bets, 67% of the money; Under 155.5: 51% of bets, 34% of the money.