Utah Tech Trailblazers vs New Mexico Lobos prediction: Ethan Potter tests a green New Mexico frontcourt in the Pit

Potter against an untested interior

Both programs take the floor with rosters that look little like last year's. That makes tonight's game in Albuquerque a first look at two new teams. The most interesting test is near the basket.

Utah Tech's offense now runs through Ethan Potter. The forward was named preseason all-Big Sky after scoring 16.9 points a game last season. He shot 59.9% from the field and posted an offensive rating of 130.2, a measure of points produced per 100 possessions that marks him as one of the most efficient high-volume players at that level. He almost never shoots threes. He scores around the rim.

That is where New Mexico was vulnerable last season. The Lobos chased opponents off the 3-point line and allowed the 8th-highest opponent 3-point attempt rate in Division I. Teams that did get inside scored: opponents made 52.6% of their twos, which ranked 246th of 365. And the frontcourt behind that defense has turned over. Tomislav Buljan left for Maryland. Transfer Rytis Petraitis sprained an ankle and is unlikely to play Monday, though the injury isn't considered serious. Olen admitted earlier in the preseason that "a lot of our frontcourt guys have never played college basketball."

Utah Tech also had more size on the floor last season, weighting height by minutes, at 77.8 inches to New Mexico's 75.8. If Potter draws fouls and early touches against freshmen, the Trailblazers have a path to keeping this respectable.

Hall sets the Lobos' ceiling

New Mexico's answer is a backcourt that can bury opponents from outside. Jake Hall made 43.8% of his threes last season on 267 attempts, elite accuracy at that volume. He opened the preseason with 31 points in a 99-89 exhibition win at Oklahoma State.

Olen has named Uriah Tenette his starting point guard from day one. Two productive transfers give the Lobos more scoring around them. Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi averaged 11.8 points at William & Mary, and Hudson Mayes brings a 56.8% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes 1.5 times) from UC San Diego. New Mexico returns 32.5% of last season's minutes, so this is still a team learning itself. Olen said he is still sorting out how the pieces fit. But the Lobos are the Mountain West preseason favorite, and Olen signed a new five-year deal in May.

Utah Tech starts nearly from scratch

Jon Judkins begins his 22nd season and his first in the Big Sky, where the Trailblazers were picked seventh. He said in July that the program lost many players to NIL and graduation. The numbers back him up. Utah Tech's top three guards from last season all left, including Chance Trujillo, now at Hawai'i.

The replacements arrive with shaky shooting resumes. Stonehill transfer Rex Sunderland shot 27.4% from three last season, and Valparaiso's Mark Brown Jr. shot 21.7% from the field. Last year's Utah Tech defense held opponents to 30.2% from deep, 21st nationally, but most of the guards who built that number are gone. Against Hall, that matters.

What the number says

What the number says New Mexico has been bet up since our feed first saw the game, from -20 to the current -23.5. The total has moved from 156.0 to 159.5.

Last season's final adjusted ratings, which measure net points per 100 possessions after accounting for opponents, had New Mexico 43rd and Utah Tech 200th. Ball security is the other lever for a margin this wide. Utah Tech ranked 239th in turnover rate last season, while New Mexico's defense ranked 60th in forcing them. With both rosters overhauled, those are rough guides, not settled facts. The cleaner read is personnel: New Mexico has the best shooter on the floor, and Utah Tech has one proven scorer.