UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots prediction: George Mason's transfer haul opens against a UMBC team starting over
Both programs lost nearly everyone from last season, but Mason restocked with proven scorers while UMBC's few returners barely played, and the 17.5-point line reflects that gap.
| Spread | George Mason -19.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146 |
- Expect Mason's veteran transfers, led by Baraka Okojie, to control a slow game while UMBC searches for scoring beyond Flash Burton.
- Okojie against UMBC's rebuilt backcourt: he averaged 19.7 points and 5.3 assists at Mercer last season.
- Mason is a 20.5-point favorite, up from 17; UMBC returns just 7.8% of last season's minutes.
Two rebuilds, one head start
In March, UMBC beat Vermont for the America East title, with DJ Armstrong Jr. scoring a career-high 33 points. Almost none of that team remains for Monday's 4 p.m. season opener at EagleBank Arena. George Mason also turned over most of its roster. The difference is that Tony Skinn, the 2025 A-10 Coach of the Year entering his fourth season, spent the offseason collecting scorers who already proved themselves elsewhere.
Returning minutes tell the story. That figure is the share of last season's minutes played by players still on the roster, and UMBC's is 7.8%. The Retrievers bring back just 5.9% of their scoring. Mason returns 15.0% of its minutes, which is hardly continuity either. Last season's records, UMBC at 24-9 and Mason at 23-10, describe the programs, not these rosters.
Mason's proven newcomers
Baraka Okojie is back at Mason after a stop at Mercer, where he made the All-SoCon First Team. He averaged 19.7 points and 5.3 assists there last season. His offensive rating of 121.7 (points produced per 100 possessions used) came on a 28.1% usage rate, so he carried a heavy load and stayed efficient.
He has shooting around him. Lilian Marville made 52.2% of his threes at UNC Greensboro, and forward Elijah Jones shot 38.6% from deep at UTEP. Emmanuel Kanga, the most productive returner, posted a 127.5 offensive rating off the bench. Mason was picked fourth in the A-10 preseason poll. It beat St. Mary's (Md.) 96-41 in an Oct. 25 exhibition, though it split its two October exhibitions.
UMBC's search for shooting
UMBC's departures took the shooting with them. Armstrong made 41.9% of his threes last season, and the rest of the starting backcourt left as well. Jim Ferry, in his fifth season after signing an extension in April, now turns to Rider transfer Flash Burton. Burton scored 15.1 points a game but shot 29.6% from three.
His effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 field goals, was 44.3%. Troy transfer Austin Cross hit 30% from deep. Riley Jacobs, the leading returner, averaged 4.3 points. The rest of the roster comes from junior college and Division II programs, so much of UMBC's rotation is an unknown.
Tempo and the market
Mason ranked 330th of 365 teams in pace last season, one of the slowest teams in the country. It also lived at the line, ranking 26th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). If Skinn keeps that identity with a new cast, expect a methodical game in which Mason works for fouls.
The total sits at 146.5, down from 147 when the line first appeared. The spread has moved from 17 to 20.5 toward Mason. No availability news has surfaced for either team, and neither has confirmed a starting lineup.
UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots line movement and odds
| Book | Retrievers ML | Patriots ML | Retrievers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +1400 | -10000 | +19.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +1500 | -3600 | +19.5 (-105) | o147.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +1800 | -6000 | +20.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +1800 | -4000 | +20 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1600 | -4500 | +19.5 (-102) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1400 | -5000 | +19.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +1450 | -4000 | +20.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots
On the Kalshi moneyline: UMBC Retrievers: 76% of bets, 35% of the money; George Mason Patriots: 25% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: George Mason Patriots -19.5: 32% of bets, 69% of the money; UMBC Retrievers +19.5: 68% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 50% of bets, 31% of the money; Under 145.5: 50% of bets, 69% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: George Mason Patriots (1 wallet, $15). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $15 on George Mason Patriots.
UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots stats (this season)
| Stat | UMBC Retrievers | George Mason Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 108.3 (184th of 365) | 113.0 (104th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 110.8 (211th of 365) | 105.2 (100th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -2.5 (200th of 365) | 7.9 (97th of 365) |
Key players
- Baraka Okojie (George Mason): He averaged 19.7 points and 5.3 assists with a 121.7 offensive rating at Mercer last season.
- Lilian Marville (George Mason): He made 52.2% of his threes at UNC Greensboro last season.
- Emmanuel Kanga (George Mason): He posted a 127.5 offensive rating and 5.2 rebounds in 13.3 minutes per game last season.
- Flash Burton (UMBC): He scored 15.1 points a game at Rider last season but shot 29.6% from three.
- Riley Jacobs (UMBC): He averaged 4.3 points and 3.8 rebounds in 15.5 minutes last season.
- Austin Cross (UMBC): He shot 30% from three on 90 attempts at Troy last season.
Numbers that matter
| UMBC returning minutes | 7.8% | Almost none of last season's America East champions remain, which makes the 2025-26 team numbers a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Mason spread | -17.5 | The line moved from 17 toward Mason since it first appeared. |
| Okojie scoring at Mercer | 19.7 | He arrives as Mason's most productive newcomer and its likely focal point. |
| Total | 146.5 | It dipped from 147, and Mason played at a slow pace last season. |
| Mason pace rank last season | 330th | Mason ranked among the slowest teams of 365, a style that would limit possessions if it carries over. |
UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots: quick answers
Who is favored in UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots?
George Mason is favored by 19.5 points (George Mason -19.5).
What is the over/under for UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots?
The total is 146 points.
When is UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Where is UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots played?
EagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA.
Has the line moved for UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots?
Yes: UMBC Retrievers opened +17 and is now +19.5, and the total moved from 147 to 147.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UMBC Retrievers: 76% of bets, 35% of the money; George Mason Patriots: 25% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: George Mason Patriots -19.5: 32% of bets, 69% of the money; UMBC Retrievers +19.5: 68% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 50% of bets, 31% of the money; Under 145.5: 50% of bets, 69% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: George Mason Patriots (1 wallet, $15). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $15 on George Mason Patriots. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.