Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos prediction: Santa Clara reloads, waits on Mahi, and hosts a gutted Towson
Both teams lost most of last season's production, and the Broncos' 14.5-point cushion rests on which rebuild is further along when the season tips late Monday night.
| Spread | Santa Clara -13 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Santa Clara's shooting and ball pressure should build a margin, while Towson tries to slow the pace and live on second chances.
- Towson's offensive rebounding, 24th nationally last season, against a Santa Clara defensive glass that ranked 267th.
- Santa Clara moved from -13.5 to -14.5 in our feed; Towson returns just 25.7% of last season's minutes.
Two rebuilds, one lopsided line
Santa Clara is coming off its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1996, a 26-9 season that ended with an overtime loss to 7-seed Kentucky. Herb Sendek, now in his 11th season, has to replace most of that team. Christian Hammond left for NC State and Allen Graves is gone too. The Broncos bring back 40.1% of last season's minutes.
Towson's reset is deeper. Only 25.7% of last season's minutes return, and its two lead guards are gone: Tyler Tejada (17.7 points per game) to Cincinnati and Dylan Williamson to Rhode Island. Pat Skerry rebuilt with five transfers, so last season's Towson numbers describe a program style more than this roster.
The largest unknown sits on Santa Clara's bench. Elijah Mahi, who started all 35 games last season and averaged 14.1 points, has been caught in the fifth-year eligibility fight. He wasn't on the roster for the Oct. 17 exhibition against Stanford, and the reports since then still conflict. His status for the opener remains unsettled.
Who does the scoring now
Santa Clara's offense ranked 27th nationally in adjusted efficiency last season (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and the returning guards were part of that machine. Jake Ensminger barely shot, with a 9.8% usage rate, but posted a 66.1% effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes. Sash Gavalyugov is the volume shooter, with 67 threes last season. Kansas State transfer David Castillo adds 10.3 points per game from his last stop.
Towson's offense ranked 257th in adjusted efficiency, and its shooting was worse than that. The Tigers made 30.3% of their threes, 341st in the country. Roseborough is the obvious fix: he hit 41.1% from deep at San José State, though in only 11 games. Sophomore Jaquan Womack is the returning scorer, and he shot 27.6% from three.
Towson's path runs through the glass
If Towson keeps this within reach, it will happen on the offensive boards. The Tigers grabbed 36.6% of their own misses last season, 24th nationally. Santa Clara's defensive rebounding ranked 267th. For a team that struggles to make shots, extra possessions are the cheapest offense available.
Caleb Embeya is the returning big man who embodies that approach, with 5.8 rebounds in 20.7 minutes per game last season. The flip side is Santa Clara's pressure. The Broncos forced turnovers on 20.2% of opponent possessions, 37th nationally, and ranked 19th in steal rate. Towson's backcourt is largely rebuilt, and live-ball turnovers would erase whatever it wins on the glass.
A tempo fight and the total
Towson played at 64.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 315th nationally, and leaned on a defense that allowed 66.1 points per game. Santa Clara ran at 69 possessions and launched threes on 45.1% of its shots. One team wants a grind and the other wants volume.
The total of 148.5 hasn't moved since our feed first saw it. The spread has, from Santa Clara -13.5 to -14.5. That number assumes the Broncos' rebuilt offense functions on night one, with or without Mahi. Last season's adjusted ratings had Santa Clara 40th and Towson 161st. Neither team's ratings yet reflect the new rosters, and both teams cleared out much of the production behind them.
What to watch
- Whether Mahi is in uniform, and how many minutes he plays if he is.
- Towson's offensive rebounds in the first half as an early read on whether the Tigers can stay close.
- Roseborough's availability and shot volume, because Towson has little proven perimeter scoring behind him.
- Santa Clara's three-point volume against a Towson defense that held opponents to 30.8% from deep last season.
Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | Broncos ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +675 | -1100 | +13.5 (-118) | o146.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +575 | -1000 | +12.5 (-106) | o146.5 (-117) |
| DraftKings | +700 | -1100 | +13.5 (-115) | o146.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +800 | -1600 | +13.5 (-115) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +750 | -1200 | +13.5 (-115) | o146.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +680 | -1100 | +12.5 (-106) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +575 | -1000 | +12.5 (-105) | o146.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +13 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos
On the Kalshi moneyline: Towson Tigers: 61% of bets, 12% of the money; Santa Clara Broncos: 40% of bets, 88% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Santa Clara Broncos -13.5: 50% of bets, 42% of the money; Towson Tigers +13.5: 50% of bets, 58% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 38% of bets, 4% of the money; Under 146.5: 63% of bets, 96% of the money.
Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos stats (this season)
| Stat | Towson Tigers | Santa Clara Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 104.4 (257th of 365) | 123.1 (27th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 104.0 (82nd of 365) | 103.8 (78th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 0.5 (161st of 365) | 19.3 (40th of 365) |
Key players
- Jake Ensminger (Santa Clara): He started all 32 games he played last season and posted a 139.3 offensive rating on low usage.
- Sash Gavalyugov (Santa Clara): He made 67 threes at 35.8% last season, mostly off the bench.
- David Castillo (Santa Clara): He averaged 10.3 points and shot 82% at the line at Kansas State last season.
- Elijah Mahi (Santa Clara): He averaged 14.1 points and 4.7 rebounds last season, but his eligibility for this season remains disputed.
- Ben Roseborough (Towson): He scored 12.0 points per game and shot 41.1% from three in 11 games at San José State last season.
- Jaquan Womack (Towson): He carried a 22.4% usage rate last season but shot only 27.6% from three.
- Caleb Embeya (Towson): He pulled down 5.8 rebounds in 20.7 minutes per game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Towson returning minutes | 25.7% | Towson returns little of last season's roster, so last season's team numbers are only a loose guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Towson offensive rebound % (last season) | 36.6% | It ranked 24th nationally and is Towson's clearest edge against a weak Santa Clara defensive glass. |
| Santa Clara defensive rebound rank (last season) | 267th | Santa Clara struggled to finish defensive possessions last season, which gives Towson second chances. |
| Santa Clara forced turnover rate (last season) | 20.2% | It ranked 37th nationally, and Santa Clara will apply that pressure to a Towson backcourt with no games together. |
| Spread movement | -13.5 to -14.5 | The line has moved toward Santa Clara since our feed first saw it, while the total has stayed at 148.5. |
Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos: quick answers
Who is favored in Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos?
Santa Clara is favored by 13 points (Santa Clara -13).
What is the over/under for Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos played?
Leavey Center, Santa Clara, CA.
Has the line moved for Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos?
Yes: Towson Tigers opened +12 and is now +13.5, and the total moved from 148 to 146.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Towson Tigers vs Santa Clara Broncos?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Towson Tigers: 61% of bets, 12% of the money; Santa Clara Broncos: 40% of bets, 88% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Santa Clara Broncos -13.5: 50% of bets, 42% of the money; Towson Tigers +13.5: 50% of bets, 58% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 38% of bets, 4% of the money; Under 146.5: 63% of bets, 96% of the money.