UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys prediction: McNeese's turnover machine tests UAB's brand-new backcourt in Rock Hill
Andy Kennedy rebuilt UAB almost from scratch, and his former graduate assistant brings the defense that forced more turnovers than anyone in the country last season.
| Spread | McNeese -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 152.5 |
- Expect a ragged opener: McNeese's pressure system against a UAB rotation of transfers who have never played a real game together.
- Justyn Fernandez against a defense that dares opponents to shoot threes; he made 40.3% of his at Delaware last season.
- McNeese is -3, down from -3.5, and the total rose from 149 to 151. McNeese led Division I in forced turnover rate last season.
Pressure against strangers
Season openers punish teams that haven't learned each other's habits, and no team in this field of eight has less shared experience than UAB. The Blazers bring back just 9.7% of last season's minutes. Sophomore guard Salim London is the only confirmed returner. Eleven newcomers fill out the roster.
McNeese has the defense to exploit that. Last season the Cowboys forced turnovers on 25.9% of opponent possessions, first in Division I. UAB was the opposite kind of team, coughing it up on just 12.9% of trips, fourth-best in the country. That ball security belonged to players who have since left. Chance Westry, last season's primary playmaker, is at Xavier.
McNeese turned over its roster too, returning 30.7% of its minutes. But the pressure is Bill Armstrong's system, and he is back for his second season. The guards being chased carry the bigger burden tonight. Elijah Duval and Deuce Jones both ran high-usage offenses at their old schools. Neither has done it with these teammates.
What the press gives away
Pressure comes with a price, and last season McNeese paid it in two places. Opponents took 47.7% of their shots from three, the 10th-highest share in the country, because scrambling defenses leave shooters open. The Cowboys also fouled often: their opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) ranked 313th.
That sets up the matchup to watch. Fernandez, a transfer from Delaware, hit 40.3% of his threes last season on 159 attempts and made 87.8% at the line. If UAB's guards can break the first wave of pressure and find him, the open looks McNeese concedes start to cost it. If they can't, the shots never come.
Larry Johnson and the reload
McNeese's anchor is sophomore Larry Johnson, who scored 17.4 points per game last season with an offensive rating of 125.1 (points produced per 100 possessions). He did it inside out; he made just 23.8% of his threes, so he scores by attacking the paint.
Around him, Armstrong added six high-major transfers, the most in school history. Former Ole Miss forward Corey Chest has yet to play in the preseason because of his back. Armstrong expects him available tonight, with his minutes depending on how the back responds. Jerrell Colbert returns as the rim protector for a team whose block rate ranked 4th last season, a problem for a UAB group that will need to score at the rim.
Mentor, student and the number
There is a personal edge here. Armstrong is a UAB alumnus who began coaching as a graduate assistant for the Blazers, and he calls Kennedy his mentor. Kennedy has a strong opening-night résumé, 16-3 in season openers, though he has spent the fall doing double duty as UAB's interim athletic director.
The market has the Cowboys at -3, down from -3.5 when our feed first saw the game, so the small move has gone UAB's way. McNeese finished last season 61st in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), with UAB 112th, but both rosters have changed too much for those ratings to settle much. The total climbed to 151 from 149, a notable bet on scoring given McNeese played at one of the slowest paces in the country last season (328th of 365). Turnovers that turn into layups, and fouls that stop the clock, are the routes to that number.
What to watch - How cleanly UAB's guards handle the first few minutes of pressure - Whether Fernandez gets the open threes McNeese usually concedes - Chest's minutes and how his back holds up - Free throw volume for both teams
UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys line movement and odds
| Book | Blazers ML | Cowboys ML | Blazers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 | +3.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +138 | -175 | +3.5 (-117) | o153.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +124 | -148 | +2.5 (-108) | o153.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 | — | o153.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +135 | -165 | +3.5 (-115) | o154 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +128 | -154 | +3.5 (-120) | o153.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -170 | +3.5 (-115) | o153.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 | +4 (-110) | o153.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys
On the Kalshi moneyline: UAB Blazers: 41% of bets, 45% of the money; McNeese Cowboys: 59% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: McNeese Cowboys -4.5: 60% of bets, 35% of the money; UAB Blazers +4.5: 40% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 152.5: 79% of bets, 39% of the money; Under 152.5: 21% of bets, 61% of the money.
UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys stats (this season)
| Stat | UAB Blazers | McNeese Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 110.3 (147th of 365) | 115.4 (77th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 105.1 (98th of 365) | 102.1 (60th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 5.2 (112th of 365) | 13.3 (61st of 365) |
Key players
- Justyn Fernandez (UAB): Shot 40.3% from three and 87.8% at the line while averaging 16.6 points at Delaware last season.
- Elijah Duval (UAB): Carried a 33.1% usage rate and averaged 3.6 assists at Southern Utah last season.
- Deuce Jones (UAB): Averaged 15.8 points in 10 games at Saint Joseph's last season.
- Salim London (UAB): Played 19.6 minutes per game for UAB last season, the lone link to last year's rotation.
- Larry Johnson (McNeese): Averaged 17.4 points with a 125.1 offensive rating last season.
- Jerrell Colbert (McNeese): Blocked 1.3 shots per game in 19.8 minutes last season.
- Corey Chest (McNeese): Shot 59.4% from the field in 13.1 minutes per game at Ole Miss last season, and his back will dictate his minutes.
- Carl Cherenfant (McNeese): Made 15 starts and averaged 4.1 points for McNeese last season.
Numbers that matter
| McNeese forced turnover rate, last season | 25.9% | First in Division I, now aimed at a UAB backcourt with no shared game experience. |
|---|---|---|
| UAB returning minutes | 9.7% | Nearly all of last season's elite ball security left with the players who provided it. |
| McNeese opponent 3-point attempt rate, last season | 47.7% | 10th-highest in the country, the opening a shooter like Fernandez can exploit. |
| Current spread | -3.0 | McNeese is favored by 3, down from -3.5 when our feed first saw the game. |
UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys: quick answers
Who is favored in UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys?
McNeese is favored by 3.5 points (McNeese -3.5).
What is the over/under for UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys?
The total is 152.5 points.
When is UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.
Where is UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys played?
Rock Hill Sports & Event Center, Rock Hill, SC.
Has the line moved for UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys?
Yes: UAB Blazers opened -2.5 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 149.5 to 153.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UAB Blazers vs McNeese Cowboys?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UAB Blazers: 41% of bets, 45% of the money; McNeese Cowboys: 59% of bets, 55% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: McNeese Cowboys -4.5: 60% of bets, 35% of the money; UAB Blazers +4.5: 40% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 152.5: 79% of bets, 39% of the money; Under 152.5: 21% of bets, 61% of the money.