Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave prediction: UT Martin's freshman rebuild opens against Tulane's transfer-built shooters
Both programs turned over their rosters, but Tulane restocked with proven Division I scorers while UT Martin starts over with a teenage, international roster on the road.
| Spread | Tulane -6 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Tulane's veteran transfers should control the shooting and the foul line; UT Martin needs its freshmen to defend like last season's veterans did.
- Tulane's sharpshooting transfers TJ Nadeau and Carson Schwieger against a UT Martin perimeter defense rebuilt almost from scratch.
- Tulane is -5.5, down from -9.5 when our feed first saw it; UT Martin returns only 18.2% of last season's minutes.
A Skyhawk team built from scratch
UT Martin went 22-11 last season behind a defense that ranked 8th nationally in efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). Almost none of that team walks into Devlin Fieldhouse tonight. Players still on the roster accounted for just 18.2% of last season's minutes. The 15-man roster carries 10 true freshmen, and junior Giorgi Sulaberidze is the only upperclassman.
The departures cut deep. Andrija Bukumirovic left for Boston College and Matas Deniusas for Rhode Island, taking the frontcourt production with them. Filip Petkovski is the most experienced holdover, but he averaged 5.3 points last season. OVC voters still picked the Skyhawks third this preseason, a vote of faith in what Jeremy Shulman, now in his third year, has built. Last season's team numbers describe a different group of players, so treat them as a sketch of Shulman's system rather than a forecast.
Tulane reloads with proven scorers
Tulane turned over its roster too, returning 25.5% of last season's minutes. Tyler Ringgold is the only returning starter from the 18-15 team. The difference is where the newcomers came from: six are Division I transfers who carried real loads elsewhere.
Krystian Lewis averaged 18.4 points at UL Monroe and opened with 27 in a 108-97 exhibition win over Spring Hill on Oct. 28. The bigger upgrade may be the shooting. Tulane made 32.1% of its threes last season, 289th in the country. TJ Nadeau hit 46.7% from deep at Detroit Mercy, and Carson Schwieger made 92 threes at Queens. If those two find space against a freshman defense, the Wave's spacing problem from last season disappears quickly.
Tulane also lived at the line last season, ranking 13th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). Lewis made 84.1% of his free throws, a useful trait if the opener stays tight late.
The glass is Tulane's soft spot
The one area where Tulane looked vulnerable last season was the defensive boards. The Wave grabbed 64.6% of opponents' misses, 355th nationally. Shulman's team lived on the offensive glass last season, ranking 4th in offensive rebound rate. Whether this year's freshmen can crash like that is the open question, since the rebounders behind that number have left.
Ringgold offered a hopeful sign in the exhibition with a double-double, and Ryan Blount added 14 points and 10 rebounds. Ball security is the other test for UT Martin. Last season's group turned it over on 22.1% of possessions, 360th of 365, and a freshman lineup on the road in its first game is unlikely to make that problem smaller.
What the market is saying
Tulane is favored by 5.5 across nine books, down from -9.5 when our feed first recorded the game. The move toward UT Martin is notable given how little experience the Skyhawks bring back. The total has moved from 144.5 to 146.5.
Tempo offers a reason for caution on that total: last season UT Martin played at 65 possessions per 40 minutes, among the slowest teams in the country, while Tulane sat near the middle of the pack. Tulane is 7-0 in season openers under Ron Hunter, and it won the only prior regular-season meeting 87-74 in 2018.
- Can Nadeau and Schwieger get clean looks early?
- Does UT Martin's frontcourt win second chances against Tulane's weak defensive rebounding?
- How often do the Skyhawk freshmen give the ball away?
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave line movement and odds
| Book | Skyhawks ML | Wave ML | Skyhawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +220 | -275 | +6.5 (-118) | o146.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +220 | -286 | +6.5 (-118) | o146.5 (-117) |
| DraftKings | +220 | -270 | +6.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +220 | -270 | +6.5 (-125) | o147.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +210 | -260 | +5.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +205 | -255 | +5.5 (-102) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +220 | -275 | +6.5 (-115) | o146.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +222 | -278 | +6 (-110) | o147 (-110) |
Where the money is on Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tenn-Martin Skyhawks: 63% of bets, 11% of the money; Tulane Green Wave: 38% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tulane Green Wave -5.5: 48% of bets, 95% of the money; Tenn-Martin Skyhawks +5.5: 52% of bets, 6% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 75% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 146.5: 25% of bets, 21% of the money.
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave stats (this season)
| Stat | Tenn-Martin Skyhawks | Tulane Green Wave |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 99.7 (322nd of 365) | 107.3 (204th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 104.4 (86th of 365) | 111.2 (220th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -4.7 (219th of 365) | -3.8 (209th of 365) |
Key players
- Krystian Lewis (Tulane): Averaged 18.4 points last season at UL Monroe and scored 27 in the Oct. 28 exhibition.
- TJ Nadeau (Tulane): Shot 46.7% from three last season with a 132.1 offensive rating.
- Carson Schwieger (Tulane): Made 92 threes at a 40.9% clip last season.
- Tyler Ringgold (Tulane): Averaged 9.4 points last season and posted 22 points and 13 rebounds in the exhibition.
- Filip Petkovski (UT Martin): Started 28 games last season, averaging 5.3 points and 2.6 assists.
- Vladimir Khryapa (UT Martin): Averaged 13.8 minutes and 2.5 rebounds off the bench last season.
- Davi Remagen (UT Martin): Played 11 games at Georgia Tech last season, averaging 10.5 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| UT Martin returning minutes | 18.2% | Nearly all of last season's elite defense has left the program. |
|---|---|---|
| Nadeau's 3-point % last season | 46.7% | A major shooting upgrade for a Tulane team that ranked 289th from three last season. |
| Tulane defensive rebound % last season | 64.6% | Ranked 355th, the clearest weakness UT Martin's style could target. |
| UT Martin turnover rate last season | 22.1% | Ranked 360th, and this year's roster is far younger. |
| Spread movement | -9.5 | Tulane's first line in our feed, now down to -7.5. |
Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave: quick answers
Who is favored in Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave?
Tulane is favored by 6 points (Tulane -6).
What is the over/under for Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Where is Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave played?
Devlin Fieldhouse, New Orleans, LA.
Has the line moved for Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave?
Yes: Tenn-Martin Skyhawks opened +6 and is now +6.5, and the total moved from 145.5 to 146.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Tenn-Martin Skyhawks vs Tulane Green Wave?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tenn-Martin Skyhawks: 63% of bets, 11% of the money; Tulane Green Wave: 38% of bets, 90% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tulane Green Wave -5.5: 48% of bets, 95% of the money; Tenn-Martin Skyhawks +5.5: 52% of bets, 6% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 75% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 146.5: 25% of bets, 21% of the money.