Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers prediction: Dylan Faulkner carries a thin Clemson into Stetson's soft interior
Clemson opens with nine healthy bodies and a roster of newcomers, but its new frontcourt draws a Stetson defense that couldn't protect the rim last season.
| Spread | Clemson -22.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 144.5 |
- Clemson likely slows the game, works the ball inside and pulls away. Stetson needs its rebuilt perimeter to hit threes early to keep the margin respectable.
- Dylan Faulkner, a 61.7% shooter at Samford last season, against a Stetson defense that ranked 351st in opponent 2-point percentage.
- Clemson is -22.5, down from -26. The total slid to 143.5, and Clemson ranked 315th in pace last season.
A roster built on the fly
Clemson tips off its season tonight at Littlejohn Coliseum at 7:00 PM ET, and it barely resembles last year's team. Players on this roster logged only 28.4% of last season's minutes. Leading scorer RJ Godfrey left for Arizona, and the lineup that takes the floor against Stetson depends on four transfers.
The injury list makes the turnover worse. Guard Zac Foster tore his ACL in October and is out indefinitely. Center Carter Welling had a minor preseason setback and is on track to return around the start of ACC play in late December. Fifth-year guard Dillon Hunter remains ineligible. He withdrew from one eligibility lawsuit to pursue a separate case, and no ruling had come down as of late October. Clemson will likely play only nine players to start the year.
Ace Buckner, back from shoulder surgery in March, is running the point in a three-guard look, with Notre Dame transfer Cole Certa beside him. Certa made 89.2% of his free throws last season, which matters if Clemson builds a lead and Stetson starts fouling. Brownell said the group is "probably a little bit behind schedule." The Tigers still won both of their exhibitions, against Georgia and Presbyterian.
Faulkner against a soft middle
The clearest edge is in the paint. Faulkner averaged 17.2 points at Samford last season and shot 61.7% from the field, almost all of it near the basket. He looked strong in the exhibitions and is expected to anchor the frontcourt while Welling is out.
Stetson's defense struggled most at the rim last season. Opponents made 56.8% of their 2-point shots, 351st of 365, and the Hatters ranked 351st in block rate as well. San Francisco transfer David Fuchs, who averaged 12.7 points last season, gives Clemson a second big body to attack the same weakness.
The one catch is Faulkner at the line. He made just 56.3% of his free throws last season, so Stetson's best option may be to foul him rather than let him finish.
Stetson's shooting, minus its shooter
Stetson's path to staying close runs through the 3-point line. Last season the Hatters made 36.3% of their threes, 47th nationally. The man who drove that number is gone: Ethan Copeland made 109 threes and left for Virginia Tech. Only 38.9% of last season's minutes return, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide.
What's left is promising in spots. Forward Collin Kuhl scored 13.1 points a game on 65.6% shooting last season. Finley Sheridan hit 42.4% from deep in limited volume. Transfers Makhi Myles (SE Louisiana) and Thiago Sucatzky (FIU) take over a backcourt that lost its top three guards.
Clemson's defense guarded the arc well last season, holding opponents to 32.4% from three, 104th nationally. Ball security is a second worry for Stetson. The Hatters ranked 282nd in turnover rate last season, the share of possessions that end in a turnover.
A slow game and a big number
Clemson finished last season with an adjusted net efficiency of 19.8, meaning it outscored opponents by about that many points per 100 possessions after adjusting for schedule. That ranked 37th. Stetson finished 313th at -15. Both figures describe last season's rosters, not these ones, and the market's -22.5 reflects that gap between the programs.
Tempo shapes the rest. Clemson ranked 315th in pace last season and protected the ball well, so expect long possessions and fewer chances overall. The Tigers also finished 33rd in defensive rebounding, which should limit Stetson's second shots.
The spread moved toward Stetson, from -26 to -22.5, and the total dropped from 147.5 to 143.5. That fits a Clemson team with nine players and a stated preference for a deliberate pace.
Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers line movement and odds
| Book | Hatters ML | Tigers ML | Hatters spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1700 | -10000 | +22.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +22.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +2200 | -8000 | +22.5 (-112) | o144.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +3000 | -20000 | +22.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +2500 | -7000 | +22.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +2400 | -10000 | +22.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +22.5 (-115) | o144.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +2200 | -15000 | +22.5 (-110) | o144.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stetson Hatters: 84% of bets, 3% of the money; Clemson Tigers: 16% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Clemson Tigers -22.5: 82% of bets, 80% of the money; Stetson Hatters +22.5: 18% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 83% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 145.5: 17% of bets, 10% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Clemson Tigers (1 wallet, $5). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $5 on Clemson Tigers.
Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers stats (this season)
| Stat | Stetson Hatters | Clemson Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 103.3 (276th of 365) | 117.1 (70th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 118.4 (330th of 365) | 97.4 (22nd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -15.0 (313th of 365) | 19.8 (37th of 365) |
Key players
- Dylan Faulkner (Clemson): Averaged 17.2 points and 8.6 rebounds at Samford last season on 61.7% shooting.
- Cole Certa (Clemson): Made 81 threes and 89.2% of his free throws at Notre Dame last season.
- Ace Buckner (Clemson): Back from shoulder surgery after averaging 8.3 points in 19.5 minutes last season.
- David Fuchs (Clemson): Posted 12.7 points and 7.8 rebounds a game at San Francisco last season.
- Collin Kuhl (Stetson): Stetson's top returner averaged 13.1 points on 65.6% shooting last season.
- Finley Sheridan (Stetson): Shot 42.4% from three last season in 21.6 minutes a game.
- Makhi Myles (Stetson): Averaged 7.7 points and 1.4 steals at SE Louisiana last season.
Numbers that matter
| Stetson opponent 2-point % | 56.8% | Ranked 351st last season, the weakness Faulkner and Fuchs will test. |
|---|---|---|
| Clemson returning minutes | 28.4% | Last season's numbers say little about a roster this new and this short-handed. |
| Stetson 3-point % | 36.3% | Ranked 47th last season, but its top shooter, Copeland, is now at Virginia Tech. |
| Spread | -25.5 | Clemson's number moved slightly toward Stetson after first being seen at -26. |
| Total | 144.25 | Down from 147.5, consistent with Clemson's slow pace and thin rotation. |
Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers: quick answers
Who is favored in Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers?
Clemson is favored by 22.5 points (Clemson -22.5).
What is the over/under for Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers?
The total is 144.5 points.
When is Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers played?
Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson, SC.
Has the line moved for Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers?
Yes: Stetson Hatters opened +26 and is now +22.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 144.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stetson Hatters: 84% of bets, 3% of the money; Clemson Tigers: 16% of bets, 97% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Clemson Tigers -22.5: 82% of bets, 80% of the money; Stetson Hatters +22.5: 18% of bets, 20% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 145.5: 83% of bets, 90% of the money; Under 145.5: 17% of bets, 10% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Stetson Hatters vs Clemson Tigers?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Clemson Tigers (1 wallet, $5). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $5 on Clemson Tigers. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.