Southwestern Christian vs North Texas prediction: North Texas brings its turnover-hunting defense to The Super Pit
Against a non-Division I visitor, the Mean Green's real test is whether last season's elite pressure carries over and whether the shooting finally does.
- North Texas should control this with its defense. The questions are its shooting and its fouling, not the result.
- Mean Green ball pressure against an unknown backcourt: last season they forced turnovers at the 9th-highest rate in Division I.
- No spread or total posted as of Oct. 14. Last season's pace of 66.3 possessions, 250th of 365, points to a slow game.
The defense travels first
North Texas built its 19-14 season around stops. Last season's adjusted defensive efficiency, points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents, was 100.6, 41st of 365. The pressure behind it was real. The Mean Green forced turnovers on 22.2% of opponent possessions, 9th nationally, and posted the 8th-best steal rate.
That profile should overwhelm a visitor from outside Division I. The caveat is the roster. Daniyal Robinson's first team at UNT returned no scholarship player or walk-on from the year before, so last season's numbers describe a group assembled in a hurry. They are a guide to Robinson's style more than a guarantee about this season's players. Senior forward Dylan Arnett, who followed Robinson from Cleveland State, is on this season's roster.
The jump shot still needs work
The offense was the problem. Last season's effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, was 47.4%, 343rd in the country. The Mean Green made 29.9% of their threes, 351st. They also lost leading scorer Will McClendon to a season-ending knee injury four games in.
A game like this one is a low-pressure look at whether the shooting can improve, with guards Cahmai Crosby and Cole Franklin on the 2026-27 roster. No 2026-27 injury or eligibility news had surfaced for either team as of Oct. 14.
Whistles and the visitor
One habit to watch: last season North Texas allowed a free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, of 44.3%, 351st of 365. Aggressive hands produce steals and fouls alike, and a parade to the line is the visitor's likeliest way to keep the score respectable.
The opponent appears to be the NAIA program from Bethany, Okla., coached by Quinn Wooldridge, though that identification is unconfirmed. No 2026-27 roster information was available for the Eagles. Tip time at The Super Pit on Nov. 2 had not been announced.
Numbers that matter
| Forced turnover rate, last season | 22.2% | Ranked 9th in Division I and is the core of Robinson's defensive identity. |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted defense, last season | 41st | North Texas allowed 100.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents. |
| 3-point shooting, last season | 29.9% | Ranked 351st of 365, the main weakness the new roster has to fix. |
| Opponent free throw rate, last season | 44.3% | Ranked 351st, so the aggressive defense sent opponents to the line often. |
Southwestern Christian vs North Texas: quick answers
When is Southwestern Christian vs North Texas?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.