Southern Wesleyan vs Charleston prediction: John Groce opens Charleston tenure as Southern Wesleyan visits TD Arena
The result matters less than the first look at Groce's Cougars, especially whether a team that couldn't shoot threes last season has found a fix.
- Charleston should control a home opener against a non-Division I visitor; the real interest is rotations and shot quality under Groce.
- Watch Jlynn Counter's playmaking. He averaged 5.6 assists last season and should set the tone for a new staff.
- No line is posted yet. Last season's 29.7% three-point shooting, 354th nationally, is the number to weigh when one appears.
A new coach, a familiar core
Monday night is John Groce's first game in charge at Charleston after he left Akron. The Cougars went 21-11 last season and finished 172nd of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), a middling profile. Their season ended with a CAA tournament quarterfinal loss to Towson.
The roster data shows 79.8% of last season's minutes back, led by guard Jlynn Counter, who averaged 15.7 points. Ben Bradford (from Charlotte) and Tavari Johnson (from Akron) arrive, and one CAA preseason ranking slotted Charleston second. The biggest loss is center Christian Reeves, who scored 11.1 points per game and left for Kansas.
The shooting question
Charleston's flaw last season was plain: it made 29.7% of its threes, 354th nationally. It compensated by getting to the line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per shot) that ranked 42nd. Defensively, it rarely fouled, allowing the 16th-lowest free throw rate in the country, and it protected the rim with a block rate that ranked 37th. Chol Machot, who averaged 2.5 blocks, is the returning anchor there.
Against a smaller-program opponent, the scoreboard won't answer much. Whether Groce's guards hunt better shots or keep firing at last season's rate will.
Context and availability
Southern Wesleyan plays in Conference Carolinas and finished 13-14 last season under coach Joel Stites. It hosts Emory on Thursday before making the trip. This game exists because Charleston moved its home slate to open Nov. 2, raising its home dates from 15 to 17.
Martin Kalu and Bradford were recovering from injuries over the summer, and there has been no public update on either since.
Key players
- Jlynn Counter (Charleston): Last season he averaged 15.7 points and 5.6 assists with a 27.1% usage rate.
- Chol Machot (Charleston): Last season he blocked 2.5 shots per game in 19.7 minutes and posted a 60.9% effective field goal percentage.
- Martin Kalu (Charleston): Last season he started all 32 games but shot 28.8% from three; his health status is unconfirmed.
- Connor Hickman (Charleston): Last season he averaged 10.7 points but made just 28.3% of his threes.
Numbers that matter
| 3-point % (last season) | 29.7% | Ranked 354th of 365, the clearest weakness the new staff inherits. |
|---|---|---|
| Free throw rate (last season) | 40.9% | Ranked 42nd, showing how Charleston manufactured offense without the three. |
| Opponent free throw rate (last season) | 25.8% | Ranked 16th; Charleston defended without fouling. |
| Returning minutes | 79.8% | Much of last season's rotation is back despite the coaching change. |
Southern Wesleyan vs Charleston: quick answers
When is Southern Wesleyan vs Charleston?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.