Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins prediction: Belmont's shooting factory reboots under Evan Bradds against rebuilt USI
The nation's most accurate shooting team last season lost its coach and most of its rotation, and the market still asks Belmont to win its opener by a wide margin over a Southern Indiana roster built almost entirely from scratch.
| Spread | Belmont -17.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 155.75 |
- Belmont's returning bench shooters and home floor should be too much for a USI roster that brings back just 15.0% of last season's minutes.
- Eoin Dillon's perimeter shooting against a USI backcourt rebuilt around Kaden Brown, who is back from a January injury.
- Belmont is -17.25, up from -15.5 when our feed first saw it. The total climbed to 154.5.
The best shooters, mostly gone
Last season Belmont went 26-6 and led Division I in effective field goal percentage, a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times, at 60.7%. It also ranked 1st in three-point percentage. That version is gone. Casey Alexander left for Kansas State, and first-year head coach Evan Bradds takes over.
The roster scattered with him. Tyler Lundblade went to Tennessee, Sam Orme to Nebraska, Drew Scharnowski to Duke and Brigham Rogers to Murray State. Belmont returns 38.4% of last season's minutes.
What's left is the second unit, and it can shoot. Eoin Dillon made 44.6% of his threes off the bench. Jack Smiley hit 43.6% from deep. Jabez Jenkins started every game last season and gives Bradds a steady guard. Jack Orme also pulled his name out of the transfer portal to return. The open question is inside, where Ball State transfer Kayden Fish and Florida Atlantic center Vincent Neugebauer are asked to replace Scharnowski and Rogers.
USI starts from scratch
Southern Indiana went 7-23 last season, and then the roster turned over almost completely. Three players return, and the program added 11 transfers. Returners played just 15.0% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about this group.
Stan Gouard is building around Kaden Brown, a senior guard whose season ended with a January injury. Brown is fully recovered and listed as probable. He averaged 11.1 points per game before he got hurt. Josiah Dunham, who shot 35.8% from three, is the other returner with real minutes.
The newcomers arrive with modest track records. Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams came from Oral Roberts, Afan Trnka from UT Martin and Ari Gooch from UAB. Trnka made 28.7% of his threes last season. Against a team that will fire from the perimeter, USI needs someone besides Brown who can answer.
Pace and the total
Last season Belmont played at 70 possessions per 40 minutes, 73rd nationally. USI played at 64.2, which ranked 336th. If Bradds keeps the tempo Belmont has played at, USI's new pieces have to keep up from the opening tip.
One quirk from USI's last season is worth noting. Opponents took only 27.4% of their shots from three against the Screaming Eagles, 364th of 365. Belmont took 46.1% of its shots from deep. With almost no one back from that USI defense, it would be unwise to count on that profile holding up against Dillon and Smiley.
Where the line has gone
Belmont is favored by 17.25 with 10 books quoting, up from 15.5 when our feed first recorded the game. The total moved from 152.0 to 154.5. The market is betting that the Bruins' system and returning shooters outweigh the coaching change.
A big spread also puts the late minutes in play. Belmont made just 68.5% of its free throws last season, 310th nationally, and a team that misses at the line can let a comfortable lead shrink when the game slows down late.
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins line movement and odds
| Book | Eagles ML | Bruins ML | Eagles spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1050 | -2500 | +17.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +1050 | -5000 | +16.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +1200 | -2400 | +17.5 (-115) | o156.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +1500 | -5000 | +17.5 (-115) | o156.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +1400 | -2800 | +17 (-110) | o156 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1200 | -4500 | +17.5 (-118) | o156.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1100 | -2500 | +16.5 (+100) | o155.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +17.5 (-110) | o156 (-110) |
Where the money is on Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles: 56% of bets, 6% of the money; Belmont Bruins: 44% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Belmont Bruins -17.5: 50% of bets, 97% of the money; Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles +17.5: 50% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 50% of bets, 33% of the money; Under 156.5: 50% of bets, 67% of the money.
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins stats (this season)
| Stat | Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles | Belmont Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 94.8 (353rd of 365) | 120.1 (42nd of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 113.3 (255th of 365) | 107.1 (130th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -18.5 (336th of 365) | 13.0 (66th of 365) |
Key players
- Eoin Dillon (Belmont): Made 44.6% of his threes and 91.2% of his free throws last season off the bench.
- Jack Smiley (Belmont): Hit 43.6% from three with an offensive rating of 121.4 last season.
- Jabez Jenkins (Belmont): Started all 32 games last season, averaging 9.0 points and 4.5 rebounds.
- Kayden Fish (Belmont): Averaged 7.2 points at Ball State last season on 48.9% shooting.
- Kaden Brown (Southern Indiana): Averaged 11.1 points in 13 games last season before a January injury; listed as probable.
- Josiah Dunham (Southern Indiana): Shot 35.8% from three last season in 20.9 minutes per game.
- Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams (Southern Indiana): Carried a 24.1% usage rate at Oral Roberts last season, averaging 6.9 points.
- Afan Trnka (Southern Indiana): Averaged 2.4 assists at UT Martin last season but made only 28.7% of his threes.
Numbers that matter
| Belmont eFG% last season | 60.7% | Ranked 1st in Division I, though most of the players who produced it have left. |
|---|---|---|
| USI returning minutes | 15.0% | A nearly new roster makes last season's 7-23 team a weak guide. |
| Belmont returning minutes | 38.4% | Much of it belongs to bench shooters Dillon and Smiley. |
| Current spread | -17.25 | Belmont's number has grown from -15.5 since our feed first saw the game. |
| Belmont FT% last season | 68.5% | Ranked 310th, a factor if the margin is decided late. |
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins: quick answers
Who is favored in Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins?
Belmont is favored by 17.5 points (Belmont -17.5).
What is the over/under for Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins?
The total is 155.75 points.
When is Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins?
Monday, November 2, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Where is Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins played?
Curb Event Center Arena, Nashville, TN.
Has the line moved for Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins?
Yes: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles opened +16 and is now +17.5, and the total moved from 151.5 to 155.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Belmont Bruins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles: 56% of bets, 6% of the money; Belmont Bruins: 44% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Belmont Bruins -17.5: 50% of bets, 97% of the money; Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles +17.5: 50% of bets, 3% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 156.5: 50% of bets, 33% of the money; Under 156.5: 50% of bets, 67% of the money.