Rider Broncs vs Pittsburgh Panthers prediction: Pitt's transfer-built frontcourt towers over a rebuilt Rider in the opener

Two programs starting over

Almost nobody in either uniform tonight played for these programs a year ago. Pitt brings back 2.0% of last season's minutes, nearly all of them from guard Macari Moore, the only scholarship returnee on a roster of 11 transfers and two freshmen. Rider has no returning minutes at all. Kevin Baggett, who has coached the Broncs for 14 seasons, brought in 14 new players after a 4-25 finish that left Rider last in the MAAC.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. Rider ranked 357th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency last season (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), but none of the players who produced that are back. Pitt went 13-20, and Jeff Capel kept his job for a ninth season after a year the athletic director said fell "well short." He has also replaced assistants Jason Capel and Tim O'Toole. The preseason ACC poll picked Pitt 12th of 18; the MAAC poll picked Rider 13th of 13.

Pitt's size advantage inside

The clearest gap is height. Pitt's rotation averages 78.7 inches weighted by minutes, and Rider's sits at 72.8. Pitt went shopping for bigs. Armani Mighty shot 64.5% from the field at Mercer and pulled down 10.6 rebounds a game. Baye Ndongo added 8.1 rebounds a game at Georgia Tech.

Capel said he was unsure what his starting lineup would look like against Rider. Four-star freshman Chase Foster started alongside Ndongo in the scrimmage against Providence, and two starting spots still looked open. Rider's frontcourt additions, Nasir Washington from Casper College and Segun Ezekiel Obe from Tyler JC, arrive without Division I track records. Expect Pitt to test them early on the glass and around the rim.

Where Pitt's points come from

The scoring load should land on transfers who carried offenses elsewhere. A'lahn Sumler averaged 19.0 points at Charleston Southern and hit 40% of his threes. Timofei Rudovskii shot 36.2% from deep at Bryant, and Naithan George ran Syracuse's offense with 5.3 assists a game. Jonathan Powell is also expected to be one of Pitt's top players.

There is a caution flag. Pitt lost 87-64 to Providence in an exhibition on Oct. 17, a reminder that 13 new players do not become a team in a month. One late-game wrinkle: Mighty made only 53.9% of his free throws at Mercer.

Rider's guards have to carry it

Rider's top scorer from last season, Flash Burton, is now at UMBC, so the offense starts over in the backcourt. Mark Butler is the most proven piece: he started all 32 games at Lafayette, averaging 10.7 points and 4.2 assists. He is more creator than shooter, having made 5 of 20 threes there. Khalil Farmer shot 32.1% from three in a bench role at UMass Lowell. Neither profile suggests a team built to shoot its way past a much bigger opponent.

What the market says

Pitt is a 27.5-point favorite across 10 books, nudged up from -27 when our feed first saw the game. The total sits at 141.5, down a hair from 142. Covering a number that large depends on Pitt's starters building a lead before Capel turns to rotation experiments, and on whether Rider's new guards can protect the ball against bigger, longer defenders. With no shared history between these rosters, the line reflects talent and setting more than any track record.